Mailbag 220: Do you have to purchase into Auburn's early speeding success? – The Auburn Observer

AUBURN — Welcome again to the mailbag. Area is proscribed this week, as a result of sufficient of you requested me to place a full-scale recipe on the finish of this.
So let’s start with a fast introduction. I can’t consider we’re about to be, principally, a fourth of the way in which by way of Auburn soccer season. It felt like I used to be at SEC Media Days final week. It felt like I used to be on the Last 4 the week earlier than that.
(Talking of which, we’ve bought a giant basketball query towards the tip of this.)
However time flies whenever you’re having enjoyable, and overlaying this new-look Auburn soccer workforce has been enjoyable to date. Nevertheless, I’d warning that we don’t fairly now how a lot better the Tigers may be — as a result of the actual checks are arising right here shortly, after a go to from an upset-minded and probably tough South Alabama workforce.
As at all times, we’ll attempt to hold the takes level-headed as doable right here. Let’s go.
The vibe in fall camp was that the Auburn offense regarded good, however struggled to attain within the pink zone resulting from struggling to run the ball constantly. Via two video games, the bottom sport has been the spotlight for the Auburn offense.
Do you chalk that as much as the opponents’ entrance sevens? Jackson Arnold having the ability o go stay and house out opponents? The Auburn defensive entrance being REALLY good?
Ryan
It has lengthy been my perception that one of many greatest the reason why Auburn had a traditionally dangerous red-zone offense towards high quality competitors final season — the worst at scoring touchdowns there within the SEC since that 0-8 Tennessee workforce — was as a result of it couldn’t run the ball in tight conditions.
Regardless that Jarquez Hunter and the Tigers had been a reasonably profitable red-zone speeding assault in 2023, they had been removed from it in 2024. Auburn ranked 117th nationally contained in the 20s final yr with simply 1.86 yards per carry. Mix that with a passing assault that was boom-or-bust in explosiveness and lacked actual effectivity, and also you’ve bought an offense that’s going to crumble greater than it cruises within the pink zone.
Via two video games in 2025, Auburn is getting completely different outcomes with completely different personnel. The Tigers are an ideal 5-for-5 within the pink zone to date this season, with 4 touchdowns and only one area objective. That lone kick was a chip shot after Auburn bought a first-and-goal from the ten and tried a fade to Cam Coleman instantly. They’re No. 4 nationally in red-zone speeding proper now, averaging 5.67 yards per carry.
The pattern sizes are small, sure. However Auburn is toting the rock properly, even with the departure of Hunter and the accidents for Damari Alston and, now, Durell Robinson. Auburn is No. 17 nationally in speeding offense from anyplace on the sphere and has already scored seven occasions on the bottom. That’s greater than half the quantity Auburn had in 12 video games final season, and solely 9 groups nationally have extra proper now.
It is a good begin, contemplating the way it felt like we didn’t know a lot about Auburn’s speeding assault within the preseason. As Ryan famous, the Tigers had a tough time ending drives towards themselves in practices. A few of that might simply be chalked as much as Auburn’s personal defensive entrance, because it’s been just about good by way of two video games. A few of it additionally felt like, “Oh, right here we go once more.”
Personally, my tackle the Auburn speeding assault is straightforward: It has proven indicators that it might be fairly improved this season. It has additionally performed two horrible defenses, and I’m unsure how a lot that may change Saturday towards South Alabama.
Auburn ran throughout Baylor for five.9 yards per carry in its season-opening street win. Baylor is No. 88 defensively in SP+. Auburn then ran throughout Ball State, when it really handed the ball off, in a house opener the place the fast passing sport was left wide-open. Ball State is No. 133 defensively in SP+.
Properly, guess what? Auburn solely performed two defenses final season that completed worse than the place Baylor is true now in SP+. These two groups? New Mexico and ULM. Auburn ran for six.7 yards per carry towards New Mexico and 5.34 towards ULM. Auburn additionally ran for 3.35 towards Oklahoma, 3.14 towards Missouri and three.03 towards Vanderbilt.
Due to that, it’s exhausting to place a large quantity of inventory in Auburn’s speeding success to date this season. I believe Baylor has a foul protection — SMU’s No. 1 working again averaged 6.05 yards per carry and scored three touchdowns on it in Week 2 — and Ball State is the worst FBS workforce within the nation.
Auburn ought to get credit score for doing what it ought to do towards weaker defenses. However let’s not get carried away right here. If Auburn does one thing related towards South Alabama, don’t be shocked. The Jaguars are No. 91 in Defensive SP+ and simply gave up 5.36 yards per carry to Tulane. FCS program Morgan State additionally bought free just a little bit on South Alabama’s protection at greater than 4 yards per carry in its Week 1 sport.
After this, although? Oklahoma is No. 9 in Defensive SP+ and bottled up Michigan final week, with greater than half of the Wolverines’ 146 speeding yards approaching only one play. Texas A&M has been way more shaky towards the run however remains to be a top-30 protection. And Georgia is, properly, Georgia. It’s No. 6 within the nation in Defensive SP+.
Like I stated, there are indicators that Auburn has improved on the bottom. Auburn was No. 89 nationally in speeding EPA final season. Proper now, it’s No. 8. No matter opponent, that’s a giant distinction. Some credit score has to go to Jackson Arnold, who’s rocking a robust 0.65 EPA per run and a 60% success price proper now. Each are main enhancements over what Auburn had in Payton Thorne on the bottom.
A number of that has to do with higher play on the line of scrimmage: The stuff and stopped run charges for Auburn towards Baylor and Ball State had been each enhancements over what it had in those self same classes towards New Mexico and ULM final yr. There’s much less of that boom-or-bust feeling with the bottom sport.
In keeping with PFF, Auburn introduced again its high two run-blockers from final season — Connor Lew and Dillon Wade — and has gotten actual enchancment from each Jeremiah Wright and tackle-to-guard transfer Izavion “Too Tall” Miller on this space. And new tackles Mason Murphy and Xavier Chaplin are presently grading out as two of the Tigers’ high three run-blockers to date this season. The strikes up entrance are paying off on the bottom. The actual query is that if they’ll do the identical by way of the air.
I believe Auburn’s working sport has the potential to be higher this season. I believe it’s the power of this offense, and it’s the world the place each the offensive line and quarterback are most comfy working — significantly whenever you throw RPOs into the combo for the latter. There’s a reliability there that Auburn didn’t present usually within the final two seasons beneath Hugh Freeze, and that principally gained the Tigers the opener.
However, once more, it’s two dangerous defenses. You play who’s in your schedule, sure. I simply wish to see what this working sport can do towards an SEC protection earlier than I’m absolutely satisfied. If the Tigers are ending drives and transferring the chains properly on the bottom early in convention play, be careful.
Typically, how are sport day uniform colours decided in faculty soccer? For this sport (South Alabama) particularly, what went into the choice to put on white?
Chris

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