Mailbag 220: Must you purchase into Auburn's early speeding success? – The Auburn Observer

AUBURN — Welcome again to the mailbag. Area is proscribed this week, as a result of sufficient of you requested me to place a full-scale recipe on the finish of this.
So let’s start with a fast introduction. I can’t consider we’re about to be, mainly, a fourth of the way in which by way of Auburn soccer season. It felt like I used to be at SEC Media Days final week. It felt like I used to be on the Ultimate 4 the week earlier than that.
(Talking of which, we’ve acquired a giant basketball query towards the top of this.)
However time flies if you’re having enjoyable, and protecting this new-look Auburn soccer staff has been enjoyable up to now. Nevertheless, I might warning that we don’t fairly now how a lot better the Tigers could be — as a result of the actual checks are developing right here shortly, after a go to from an upset-minded and doubtlessly tough South Alabama staff.
As all the time, we’ll attempt to maintain the takes level-headed as potential right here. Let’s go.
The vibe in fall camp was that the Auburn offense regarded good, however struggled to attain within the pink zone attributable to struggling to run the ball persistently. By way of two video games, the bottom recreation has been the spotlight for the Auburn offense.
Do you chalk that as much as the opponents’ entrance sevens? Jackson Arnold having the ability o go reside and house out opponents? The Auburn defensive entrance being REALLY good?
Ryan
It has lengthy been my perception that one of many greatest the reason why Auburn had a traditionally dangerous red-zone offense in opposition to high quality competitors final season — the worst at scoring touchdowns there within the SEC since that 0-8 Tennessee staff — was as a result of it couldn’t run the ball in tight conditions.
Regardless that Jarquez Hunter and the Tigers had been a reasonably profitable red-zone speeding assault in 2023, they had been removed from it in 2024. Auburn ranked 117th nationally contained in the 20s final yr with simply 1.86 yards per carry. Mix that with a passing assault that was boom-or-bust in explosiveness and lacked actual effectivity, and also you’ve acquired an offense that’s going to crumble greater than it cruises within the pink zone.
By way of two video games in 2025, Auburn is getting completely different outcomes with completely different personnel. The Tigers are an ideal 5-for-5 within the pink zone up to now this season, with 4 touchdowns and only one subject aim. That lone kick was a chip shot after Auburn acquired a first-and-goal from the ten and tried a fade to Cam Coleman instantly. They’re No. 4 nationally in red-zone speeding proper now, averaging 5.67 yards per carry.
The pattern sizes are small, sure. However Auburn is toting the rock nicely, even with the departure of Hunter and the accidents for Damari Alston and, now, Durell Robinson. Auburn is No. 17 nationally in speeding offense from anyplace on the sector and has already scored seven occasions on the bottom. That’s greater than half the quantity Auburn had in 12 video games final season, and solely 9 groups nationally have extra proper now.
This can be a good begin, contemplating the way it felt like we didn’t know a lot about Auburn’s speeding assault within the preseason. As Ryan famous, the Tigers had a tough time ending drives in opposition to themselves in practices. A few of that might simply be chalked as much as Auburn’s personal defensive entrance, because it’s been just about good by way of two video games. A few of it additionally felt like, “Oh, right here we go once more.”
Personally, my tackle the Auburn speeding assault is easy: It has proven indicators that it might be fairly improved this season. It has additionally performed two horrible defenses, and I’m unsure how a lot that can change Saturday in opposition to South Alabama.
Auburn ran throughout Baylor for five.9 yards per carry in its season-opening highway win. Baylor is No. 88 defensively in SP+. Auburn then ran throughout Ball State, when it truly handed the ball off, in a house opener the place the fast passing recreation was left wide-open. Ball State is No. 133 defensively in SP+.
Properly, guess what? Auburn solely performed two defenses final season that completed worse than the place Baylor is true now in SP+. These two groups? New Mexico and ULM. Auburn ran for six.7 yards per carry in opposition to New Mexico and 5.34 in opposition to ULM. Auburn additionally ran for 3.35 in opposition to Oklahoma, 3.14 in opposition to Missouri and three.03 in opposition to Vanderbilt.
Due to that, it’s laborious to place an enormous quantity of inventory in Auburn’s speeding success up to now this season. I feel Baylor has a nasty protection — SMU’s No. 1 working again averaged 6.05 yards per carry and scored three touchdowns on it in Week 2 — and Ball State is the worst FBS staff within the nation.
Auburn ought to get credit score for doing what it ought to do in opposition to weaker defenses. However let’s not get carried away right here. If Auburn does one thing related in opposition to South Alabama, don’t be shocked. The Jaguars are No. 91 in Defensive SP+ and simply gave up 5.36 yards per carry to Tulane. FCS program Morgan State additionally acquired free just a little bit on South Alabama’s protection at greater than 4 yards per carry in its Week 1 recreation.
After this, although? Oklahoma is No. 9 in Defensive SP+ and bottled up Michigan final week, with greater than half of the Wolverines’ 146 speeding yards approaching only one play. Texas A&M has been way more shaky in opposition to the run however continues to be a top-30 protection. And Georgia is, nicely, Georgia. It’s No. 6 within the nation in Defensive SP+.
Like I mentioned, there are indicators that Auburn has improved on the bottom. Auburn was No. 89 nationally in speeding EPA final season. Proper now, it’s No. 8. No matter opponent, that’s a giant distinction. Some credit score has to go to Jackson Arnold, who’s rocking a robust 0.65 EPA per run and a 60% success fee proper now. Each are main enhancements over what Auburn had in Payton Thorne on the bottom.
A variety of that has to do with higher play on the line of scrimmage: The stuff and stopped run charges for Auburn in opposition to Baylor and Ball State had been each enhancements over what it had in those self same classes in opposition to New Mexico and ULM final yr. There’s much less of that boom-or-bust feeling with the bottom recreation.
In line with PFF, Auburn introduced again its high two run-blockers from final season — Connor Lew and Dillon Wade — and has gotten actual enchancment from each Jeremiah Wright and tackle-to-guard transfer Izavion “Too Tall” Miller on this space. And new tackles Mason Murphy and Xavier Chaplin are at present grading out as two of the Tigers’ high three run-blockers up to now this season. The strikes up entrance are paying off on the bottom. The true query is that if they’ll do the identical by way of the air.
I feel Auburn’s working recreation has the potential to be higher this season. I feel it’s the power of this offense, and it’s the world the place each the offensive line and quarterback are most snug working — notably if you throw RPOs into the combo for the latter. There’s a reliability there that Auburn didn’t present typically within the final two seasons below Hugh Freeze, and that mainly gained the Tigers the opener.
However, once more, it’s two dangerous defenses. You play who’s in your schedule, sure. I simply wish to see what this working recreation can do in opposition to an SEC protection earlier than I’m absolutely satisfied. If the Tigers are ending drives and transferring the chains nicely on the bottom early in convention play, be careful.
Typically, how are recreation day uniform colours decided in faculty soccer? For this recreation (South Alabama) particularly, what went into the choice to put on white?
Chris

source