NHL
ST. PAUL, Minn. — Coming into the season, it seemed like a bit of a make-or-break year for Nick Suzuki.
It is his fifth NHL season, he is 24 years old, so if we were going to get an idea of Suzuki’s ceiling, this seemed like a season where he would need to show it.
After 31 games, strictly from a point production standpoint, Suzuki seems to be who Suzuki has always been.
The production in all situations couldn’t be more stable, and his production at five-on-five is currently at a career low. So maybe, so far at least, this is what Suzuki will ultimately be. And maybe that’s fine, he’s an excellent player who does many things well.
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But Martin St. Louis and most importantly Suzuki himself don’t think that is the case.
“I think there’s more, but I think Nick is going to keep getting better as our team gets better,” St. Louis said Wednesday. “Because it’s hard to get better if people around you don’t get better. It’s not a one-man league, so I feel like as our team evolves and gets better, Suzy’s going to keep getting better.”
In other words, Suzuki is a great facilitator, and as the players around him take better advantage of his facilitating, the better his numbers will be, and the better he will be as a player.
“I’m definitely not a finished product,” Suzuki said. “I’m still learning a lot, still trying to figure out things in my game that I need to get better at. So definitely not a finished product at 24. I’m trying to learn each day, each game, and get better.
“Over the last four years, offensively, defensively, through the neutral zone, special teams, I’ve gotten a lot better in each area. I think I can still get better, it’s just a matter of consistency and reps and knowing what I need to do everywhere. There’s a lot of room to grow still.”
Suzuki is the type of player who is more appreciated by other players than perhaps fans or media or other observers. There are subtleties to his game that are hard to appreciate off the ice, but to those on the ice, they jump out.
This is just one example.
“I think it’s his ability to recognize time and space, and his version of time and space is much different than a lot of other guys,” Mike Matheson said. “He has a really good ability to protect the puck, but he also has a really good ability of knowing … when one guy would get the puck and feel rushed and feel like he has to make a play, he has a really good understanding of knowing that, no, I actually have a half a second, and he’ll take that half a second. Or he’ll turn that half a second into two seconds by protecting it or making a move.
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“I think that’s a really good skill that separates him.”
One thing that is important to keep in mind — and it is very relevant to St. Louis’ answer — is that Suzuki has not had a consistent line his entire career, and it is looking like he might have that now with Juraj Slafkovský fulfilling his draft day destiny and joining Suzuki and Cole Caufield on the Canadiens’ top line.
“When you have three guys that play together, know where they’re going, know what they have to do, it makes it a lot easier than switching guys in and out,” Suzuki said. “If we can play together and play well for a while, I think Marty will keep us together, and I think that’s what the three of us kind of envisioned when he got drafted, so it’s fun it’s here now and we get to play together.”
The three of us? We knew Slafkovský always wanted to play with Suzuki and Caufield, but it turns out that’s what they wanted as well when Slafkovský came up on the draft stage at the Bell Centre two years ago. Suzuki was privy to some of the Canadiens’ decision-making process prior to the 2022 draft, and while he didn’t know Slafkovský would be the pick ahead of time, he knew he was in the mix. So he tried to get to know him a little bit.
“I met him the day before the draft, five or six of the top prospects skated in Brossard and I was on the ice with all of them, so I got to talk to them,” Suzuki said. “I knew we were looking at a few different guys, I was told a little bit but not who we were going to pick the next day, so I just wanted to talk to all of them.
“With Slaf, I knew some of his comments at the combine in the media about wanting to play with me and Cole, so it was cool to meet him before and then see him on stage and let him know we were excited for him to be with us.”
Spoke to Juraj Slafkovský about hockey sense, often overshadowed by the physical gifts, never considered to be one of his strengths. But maybe it should be.
“I’m not so stupid.”https://t.co/veHn8Q7iAc
— Arpon Basu (@ArponBasu) December 20, 2023
Suzuki, Slafkovský and Caufield have only played seven games together, but according to MoneyPuck, they are the NHL’s 10th best line in expected goal percentage among lines who have played at least 100 minutes together, just behind Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov and Evan Rodrigues of the Florida Panthers, and just ahead of Alex Ovechkin, Dylan Strome and Tom Wilson of the Washington Capitals and Jake Guentzel, Sidney Crosby and Bryan Rust of the Pittsburgh Penguins.
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It’s still a small sample, but that’s pretty good company.
And if the words “expected goals” make your eyes roll, you should know they probably don’t to Suzuki.
He is not overly concerned with his traditional stats, the goals and assists, because over the last month or so he has been looking at different numbers.
“I don’t really look too much at the results stats,” Suzuki said. “It’s more about other stats that show I’m creating and giving my teammates opportunities going to the net or giving myself opportunities to score. So it’s not really about assists and goals, it’s more about the chances.”
One of those “other stats” is something called Offence Generating Plays, or OGP for short. It is a metric that was developed by Canadiens director of analytics Christopher Boucher prior to him joining analytics company SportlogIQ, and long before being hired by the Canadiens. It incorporates eight elements to arrive at a number for how much offence a player is generating besides goals and assists, the theory being that these are the offensive elements that naturally lead to goals and assists. They are: passes to the slot, passes off the rush, passes for one-timers, carries to the slot, loose puck recoveries in the slot, shots on goal from the slot, outside shots generating a rebound and any goal that does not also apply to any other category.
Over the last month, Canadiens director of hockey development Adam Nicholas has been focusing Suzuki on this number, and he’s completely bought in.
“Me and (Nicholas) have been talking about it over the last month or so, he was giving me a bunch of stats on the top players and how they produce offence, so I want to be in that category,” Suzuki said. “I don’t really think about it while I’m playing, but it’s something I’ll think about before a game.
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“Like, goals are scored from the slot, so I need to get there and get the puck there for my guys.”
In terms of OGP, Suzuki is having a great month.
In December alone, in all situations, Suzuki is 17th in the NHL with an OGP of 12.5. To get an idea of what that number means, Auston Matthews has an OGP of 13.5 this month, one where he has 11 goals and three assists in seven games. By comparison, Suzuki has two goals and six assists in eight games this month. So, going by those counting stats, it would look like Suzuki and Matthews are a world apart offensively, whereas in reality — or at least the reality Suzuki and the Canadiens are looking at — he is right there.
For the season, Suzuki is 46th in the NHL in OGP in all situations, but coming into December, he was 66th, so that’s a big jump in just eight games.
“I’ve been focused in on that over the last month, it’s something new to me,” Suzuki said. “But if I can keep creating, they’re going to go in the net.”
And that is ultimately what needs to happen for Suzuki to be seen as having taken that next step in his career, pucks will need to go in the net. He knows it, but he also knows that the process is important and having consistent linemates is important and getting them to produce as well will help his numbers in turn, which is what St. Louis was kind of referring to.
But because of all the additional context Suzuki is receiving — and embracing — he is not obsessed with pucks going in the net. He can just play knowing he is doing good things, and eventually, those good things should organically turn into points.
“I need to produce, that’s my position, I get the most ice time and the most opportunities to do so,” Suzuki said. “But I wouldn’t say it’s a burden, though.”
(Photo of Nick Suzuki and Mike Matheson: Minas Panagiotakis / Getty Images)
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Arpon Basu has been the editor-in-chief of The Athletic Montréal since 2017. Previously, he worked for the NHL for six years as managing editor of LNH.com and a contributing writer on NHL.com. Follow Arpon on Twitter @ArponBasu
