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Betting
12/14/23
12 min read
By Ryan Reynolds
We get our first Saturday slate of the season in Week 15. All three Saturday contests are between teams in the thick of the playoff picture.
The same goes for this week’s Sunday night and Monday night matchups.
Spread: Raiders -3
Total: 34
Thursday night kicks off the first of four matchups between backup quarterbacks on the Week 15 slate. Aidan O’Connell’s Las Vegas Raiders were shut out at home by the Vikings last week. The Raiders’ offense has scored 17 or fewer points in its previous four games.
On top of that, Josh Jacobs could miss this contest due to knee and quad issues. Surprisingly, Las Vegas’ defense has been more reliable than its offense under coach Antonio Pierce.
Easton Stick will make his first NFL start on Thursday at 28 years old. The Los Angeles Chargers’ offense was consistently struggling with Justin Herbert, so it’s hard to envision that improving with Stick.
What makes matters worse is that Keenan Allen has been ruled out for this contest. Allen currently leads the league in receptions and he’s been the only reliable Chargers’ receiver in recent weeks.
That makes Austin Ekeler the key to this matchup because the Raiders allow the sixth-most rushing yards per game to running backs. If Ekeler continues to underwhelm, the Chargers’ offense could be hard to watch.
Score Prediction: Raiders 16, Chargers 10
Spread: Bengals -3.5
Total: 39.5
Jake Browning has played well in his last two starts. That said, 126 of Brownings’ 275 passing yards last week came off short passes to running backs. To that end, expect Brian Flores to deploy a blitz-heavy game plan against Browning. Short passes and screens could once again play a major role in the Cincinnati Bengals’ offense this week.
The Minnesota Vikings have scored 13 points in their last two games. That has resulted in Josh Dobbs being benched in favor of Nick Mullens. Justin Jefferson will likely miss this contest, and Alexander Mattison is also in danger of sitting out.
Flores’ defense is giving up the fifth-fewest points per game in the league. Minnesota’s clearest path to victory is through another great defensive effort.
Score Prediction: Bengals 16, Vikings 13
Spread: Colts -2.5
Total: 42
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts suffered bad losses last week that could cost both teams a wild-card berth. But apart from last week’s flub, no team has overachieved more this season than Shane Steichen’s Colts.
Indianapolis is scoring the eighth-most points per game this season. The team will face a Steelers defense allowing the seventh-fewest points per game.
Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, its unreliable offense is even more volatile with Mitch Trubisky under center. The Steelers’ clearest path to victory is through a solid defensive effort paired with another productive game from their running back duo. If Trubisky has to be anything more than a game manager, the Colts likely win this game.
Score Prediction: Colts 16, Steelers 13
Spread: Lions -5
Total: 48
In the Detroit Lions’ past few games, they were outplayed by the Bears twice and lost on Thanksgiving to the Packers. The Lions’ defense has been below average since its Week 9 bye.
On the bright side, Detroit has a premium offensive line and a talented running back duo. That group will host the Denver Broncos’ league-worst run defense.
The Broncos have won six of their last seven, including wins against the Bills, Chiefs and Browns. Denver’s defense has driven much of that success, and Russell Wilson has been a solid game manager this year.
Occasionally, Wilson has been a difference-maker late, but he’s thrown for less than 200 yards in seven of his last nine games. Wilson has spike game potential this week against Detroit’s struggling defense.
Score Prediction: Lions 24, Broncos 20
Spread: Browns -3.5
Total: 37.5
The Chicago Bears started the year 0-4, but they’ve gone 5-4 since. Chicago is one late-game defensive meltdown in Detroit away from being 3-0 since Justin Fields returned to action. Consider Chicago a dangerous spoiler with a narrow path to NFC Wild Card contention.
Joe Flacco has saved the Cleveland Browns‘ season because he’s brought stability to the offense. That’s a significant improvement from either P.J. Walker or Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
This week, Flacco faces an ascending Bears defense that has allowed 13 points or fewer in three of its last four games. Cleveland’s defense was among the league’s best through the first half of the season. However, it has given up at least 29 points in four of the last five games.
The Browns’ defense needs to return to form because Flacco won’t throw for 300 yards weekly.
Score Prediction: Bears 17, Browns 16
Spread: Patriots +9.5
Total: 37
The Kansas City Chiefs have lost three of their last four, including their last two games. This stretch is a complete departure from the norm in the Patrick Mahomes era. Kansas City’s underwhelming skill group continues to be its biggest problem.
For the New England Patriots, Bailey Zappe had an excellent first half against the Steelers last Thursday. However, apart from that 21-point spike against Pittsburgh, the Patriots have scored 20 points in their three previous games.
The Chiefs’ defense can carry Kansas City to victory.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 24, Patriots 13
Spread: Panthers +3
Total: 35
The Carolina Panthers score the third-fewest points per game and are the stand-alone worst team in football. Carolina hasn’t hit 20 points in a game since Week 6 against the Dolphins. The Atlanta Falcons are a talented but maddeningly inconsistent team.
The Falcons’ talented running back room will face a Panthers defense that is allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game to running backs.
Atlanta’s clearest path to victory is a successful day on the ground paired with a strong defensive effort.
Score Prediction: Falcons 20, Panthers 13
Spread: Dolphins -9
Total: 39
The New York Jets ended their five-game losing streak with a 30-6 statement against Houston last week. Zach Wilson took over at quarterback again, throwing for more than 300 yards for the first time this season.
New York’s high-quality defense is reliable, but Wilson’s offense still shouldn’t be counted on, despite last week’s encouraging performance.
Tua Tagovailoa is a pocket passer who requires stable pass protection to succeed. It’s also clear Tyreek Hill is the biggest difference-making skill position player in the league.
Injuries to crucial Miami Dolphins players make this a different game than when these teams met on Black Friday. Miami could be without multiple offensive linemen, and Hill, at best, will be playing through an ankle injury. Those injuries make the Jets a significant underdog with a realistic path to victory.
Score Prediction: Dolphins 20, Jets 16
Spread: Saints -6
Total: 37.5
Tommy DeVito and the New York Giants are 3-0 and still alive in the NFC Wild Card race. New York’s defense has primarily driven this brief stretch of success, but DeVito has been better than expected.
He’ll face a rock-solid New Orleans Saints’ defense that got back on track against the Panthers last week.
Derek Carr and the Saints offense is a talented group that has been all over the road this season. Finishing drives has been New Orleans’ most significant issue, but Carr threw for 119 yards against the Panthers last week.
The Saints’ offense can exceed expectations, but it would be no surprise if it underachieves again.
Score Prediction: Saints 17, Giants 13
Spread: Packers -3.5
Total: 41.5
This contest is between two similar teams in the NFC playoff picture.
Last week, Jordan Love’s offense struggled mightily in New York. Love entered that game on a hot streak, coming off wins against the Lions and Chiefs. But the Green Bay Packers’ offense has been mediocre more often than not this season.
The way to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ defense is through the air, which puts the pressure on Love. If Christian Watson can return from injury, he will give the Packers’ passing attack more ceiling and stability.
Tampa Bay’s running game has come alive in recent weeks, with Rachaad White rushing for more than 100 yards in two of the last three weeks. The Packers are more beatable on the ground, allowing the seventh-most rushing yards to running backs.
Score Prediction: Packers 20, Buccaneers 17
Spread: Titans -2.5
Total: 38
The Tennessee Titans pulled off the biggest upset of the year in Miami last Monday, winning as 14-point road underdogs. That puts the volatile Titans in a classic letdown spot after a short week.
Ultimately, this game boils down to C.J. Stroud’s availability. If he can get through the concussion protocol, the Titans have a beatable secondary. That said, the Houston Texans will be without their top two wide receivers (Tank Dell and Nico Collins).
Stroud could still have some success despite Houston’s reduced wide receiver room, but backup QB Davis Mills likely won’t. Derrick Henry has run for more than 200 yards in four of his last five games against Houston. That isn’t a typo.
Score Prediction with C.J. Stroud: Texans 21, Titans 17
Score Prediction without C.J. Stroud: Titans 20, Texans 13
Spread: Cardinals +13.5
Total: 48
The San Francisco 49ers are the best team in the league and can dominate this game in every phase. However, San Francisco has several defensive players on the injury report, which could change the complexion of this matchup.
The Arizona Cardinals are coming off their bye, and they are 2-2 since Kyler Murray returned from injury. Arizona has upset the Cowboys and Steelers this season. In both contests, the Cardinals’ offensive line won its trench matchup against two high-end fronts.
That needs to happen again if Arizona is to keep things close against the 49ers’ premium front. Otherwise, the Cardinals will entirely rely on Murray creating magic against the league’s best team.
Score Prediction: 49ers 30, Cardinals 17
Spread: Rams -6.5
Total: 49
Matthew Stafford is positioned to light up the Washington Commanders’ league-worst pass defense. How this game plays out largely depends on Sam Howell’s ability to keep pace. Howell has thrown for at least 290 yards in seven games this season.
The Commanders’ ability to manage Aaron Donald is one of the keys to this game. If they can, Howell could keep this one close even if Stafford has a big day. Washington is coming off its bye, one of its few advantages in this contest.
Score Prediction: Rams 30, Commanders 24
Spread: Bills -2.5
Total: 51
This is a marquee matchup between two of the best teams in the league. The Dallas Cowboys lead the league in scoring and allow the fourth-fewest points per game.
The Buffalo Bills are fifth in the league in scoring while giving up the sixth-fewest points per game.
Buffalo needs to keep winning games to make the playoffs. The Bills took care of business in Kansas City last week, and now they get another tough draw. The Cowboys blew out the Eagles in prime time on Sunday night.
That puts the Cowboys in a traditional letdown spot on the road against a desperate Bills team. That’s Buffalo’s most significant edge over Dallas, which has one of the league’s best, most complete rosters.
Score Prediction: Bills 27, Cowboys 24
Spread: Jaguars +3.5
Total: 43.5
Lamar Jackson had a big game in the air against the Rams’ below-average pass defense last week. He’s in position to have another big one this week against a Jacksonville Jaguars’ pass defense that allowed more than 300 passing yards to Jake Browning and Joe Flacco in the last two weeks.
The Baltimore Ravens’ defense allows the second-fewest points per game, but Stafford took them to overtime in a shootout last week. And Trevor Lawrence is playing through an ankle sprain that he suffered two weeks ago. Last week, he threw three interceptions against Cleveland while trailing for most of the contest.
Jacksonville is more desperate for a win than Baltimore in a surprisingly competitive AFC South. If the Jaguars are going to upset the Ravens, they need a cleaner game from Lawrence.
Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Jaguars 21
Spread: Seahawks +4
Total: 47.5
As we discussed leading into Week 11, the Seattle Seahawks have fallen from 6-3 to 6-7 during their brutal schedule run. A Monday night date with the Philadelphia Eagles is the last stop on that five-game block.
Geno Smith missed last week’s game in San Francisco with a groin injury. Assuming Smith plays, the Eagles have a beatable secondary, and Smith is supported by one of the better skill groups in the league.
If he’s kept clean — like he was against Dallas — Smith has a big ceiling in this matchup. If the Eagles’ pass rush can force Smith to play under consistent duress, he will struggle.
Drew Lock starting again lowers the Seahawks’ floor on offense.
Seattle is the more desperate team, but the 49ers and Cowboys have blown out the Eagles in the last two weeks. That makes this a bounce-back spot for Philadelphia, which needs to start stacking wins to have a shot at the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
Both teams will be highly motivated, but the Eagles have a better roster and quarterback.
Score Prediction: Eagles 28, Seahawks 24
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12/14/23
12 min read
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4 min read
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