Betting odds, picks, tips for Thanksgiving games – ESPN – ESPN

Thanksgiving is here and there are three NFL games on the slate, with Green Bay at Detroit, Washington at Dallas and San Francisco at Seattle.
So what is worth betting? And what should you avoid?
Betting analysts Eric Moody, Seth Walder, Anita Marks and Aaron Schatz are here to provide their thoughts.
Note: Odds by ESPN BET.
Moody: I do believe Goff will bounce back against the Packers. We had glimpses of that in the second half against the Bears last week. Goff led back-to-back touchdown drives after throwing three interceptions. He has averaged 274.3 passing yards and 1.6 passing touchdowns per game this season. For the first time since 1962, the Lions are 8-2, and they should cover against the Packers, who are 2-5 against the spread in their past seven games. Also, the Lions play at home, where they are 3-1 against the spread in their past four games.
Schatz: Goff himself probably doesn’t think he needs a rebound; after all, the Lions won that game last week! Goff is still seventh in QBR this season compared with Jordan Love at 22nd. Detroit is clearly the better team, fourth in DVOA compared with 21st for Green Bay. In particular, I’m looking at the Lions’ ability to shut down the Packers’ run game. The Lions are eighth in run defense DVOA, and the Packers are just 25th running and will be missing Aaron Jones with an MCL sprain. I’ll take Lions -7.5.
Marks: I’m betting Lions (-4) first half and David Montgomery anytime TD and Lions win. The Lions own the Packers now that Aaron Rodgers is gone. They put up 34 at Lambeau Field and are averaging 30 a game in the Motor City. Jordan Love struggles on the road (57% completion percentage), and Aaron Jones is not expected to play. Montgomery should have a field day against this Packers rush defense allowing 135 rushing yards per game. Green Bay is 31st in first-half scoring. Lions roar!
Marks: I’m betting Dak Prescott OVER 280.5 passing yards. The Cowboys are the best front-runner team — they love running up the score on bad teams, and Jerry Jones would love to see this in “Jerry’s world” on Turkey Day! The Commanders’ pass defense is one of the worst in the league (28th in yards allowed per pass). They will not be able to cover CeeDee Lamb or Brandin Cooks. Prescott continues to shine with another 300 yards passing day.
Moody: I expect Sam Howell and the Commanders to put forth a maximum effort on Thanksgiving to wash away the bad taste of Sunday’s loss to the Giants. There’s a strong chance Washington will keep this game competitive, but I find myself gravitating toward the over. The Cowboys will take an early lead, but Commanders will storm back. This is the kind of scenario I see playing out. The total has gone over in seven of Washington’s past eight games when playing on the road against the Cowboys. That’s where I’m leaning.
Moody: The 49ers will be too much for the Seahawks. Rather than adding another loss, San Francisco would prefer to continue its winning streak. I find myself targeting the 49ers to score more than 24.5 total points. This is a great spot for Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers running game against a Seahawks defense that has given up the third most opponent rushing yards over the past three games. This season, San Francisco has averaged 25.6 points per game on the road.
Schatz: Put me also in the “49ers will be too much” camp here. I have the Baltimore Ravens super high in my DVOA ratings, but in a normal year, San Francisco right now would be the clear, unequivocal No. 1 team. It ranks first on offense with one of the best offenses I’ve ever tracked and has a top-10 defense as well, and one that’s only going to get better as the 49ers get Chase Young integrated into the scheme. Seattle is now down to 16th in DVOA despite its 6-4 record, and its pass defense ranks only 25th, which will be a real problem against that San Francisco offense.
Marks: 49ers OVER 26.5 Team Total Points. Brock Purdy has looked great since the return of Trent Williams to his offensive line and all the offensive options at his disposal. Seattle’s defense is 29th on third down and 28th in the red zone. Expect the 49ers to pick up where they left off against the Bucs last week, scoring at will.
Moody: David Montgomery over 14.5 rushing attempts. I’m also intrigued by Monty over 15.5 rushing attempts at +120. Montgomery is in a great spot with the Lions as 7.5-point favorites and the Packers defense giving up the fifth most rushing yards per game. Being weeks removed from his rib injury, Monty can coexist with Jahmyr Gibbs on Thursday.
Schatz: Jauan Jennings over 15.5 receiving yards (-105). This is an interesting one because Jennings hasn’t been part of the game plan with just 8 receiving yards in three weeks. However, Seattle has allowed a ton of yards to “other receivers” this year, as in the opponent’s third and fourth options. Tutu Atwell burnt them for 136 yards in two games (plus two DPIs). The Seahawks gave up lots of short completions to Terrace Marshall Jr. and Tyler Boyd and Wan’Dale Robinson. I think Jennings will get open for two or three short passes that will get him past this 15.5-yard prop.
Walder: Arik Armstead under 0.5 sacks (-150). I won’t lie: Armstead is hot. He has 3.5 sacks in his past three games and last week led the league in pass rush win rate at defensive tackle (35%). But I’ll fade the recency and look at his entire season: strong but not elite. Geno Smith is average at sack avoidance this season. I make this -266, although I’ll admit I’m likely slightly underrating Armstead because he’s playing more lately. In fact, my model thinks Javon Hargrave‘s and Nick Bosa‘s unders (-160 and +145, respectively) are values, too, although I would want to make sure Abraham Lucas is going to return at right tackle before betting against Bosa.
Moody: CeeDee Lamb over 90.5 receiving yards. Recently, the Cowboys have relied heavily on the passing game. Over the past four games, Lamb has been targeted 53 times. Over that period, he has averaged 134.5 receiving yards per game. The only defenses that allow more passing yards per game than the Commanders are the Buccaneers and Chargers. Lamb is going to feast on Washington’s secondary.
Schatz: Amon-Ra St. Brown under 79.5 receiving yards (-105). Obviously, St. Brown is the No. 1 receiver in Detroit, but the Packers have been quite good against slot targets this season. He’s also more of a short possession receiver, and the Packers are much stronger against shorter passes and very weak against deep passes. That means the Lions can spread the ball around to receivers such as Kalif Raymond and Jameson Williams, keeping St. Brown from reaching his usual game totals.

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