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Harry Kane and the Bundesliga strikers scoring a goal per game or more – The Athletic

October 6, 2023
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Bundesliga
Seven players in Europe’s top five leagues are scoring at a rate of at least a goal per game.
They include Erling Haaland, Kylian Mbappe and Lautaro Martinez. The other four all play in the German Bundesliga: Jonas Wind (Wolfsburg), Serhou Guirassy (Stuttgart), Victor Boniface (Bayer Leverkusen) and Harry Kane (Bayern Munich).
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There is no particular defensive weakness in Germany’s top division nor a single flaw being exploited — instead, each of those players has been scoring in a different way.
Ahead of matchday seven, here’s how (and why) they are getting their goals…
Games: 6
Goals: 10
xG: 5.45
From the relegation play-off at the end of last season to the Champions League places today, Stuttgart’s form suggests something is happening. Head coach Sebastian Hoeness was appointed in April and the improvement since has been sharp; Stuttgart are second, and only champions Bayern and leaders Leverkusen have scored more goals.
Guirassy is the vivid emblem of that change. Aged 27, he has divided his prime between France (with Lille, Amiens and Rennes) and Germany (Cologne), with this easily being the most prolific spell of his career. Last season, he managed 11 Bundesliga goals. If he scores this weekend against Wolfsburg, he will have equalled that by the beginning of autumn.
His touches have increased by roughly 20 per cent per game and he is passing the ball more often and more accurately. His creativity has also shot up: in the 2022-23 season, he was averaging 1.04 key passes per 90 minutes. That has more than doubled in the early rounds of this one to 2.59. These changes describe team improvement, but also a player with greater confidence.
His touch, turn and hit from the edge of the box against Darmstadt is the most memorable among his 10 goals. It was the one that best depicted how dangerous Guirassy can be, even when there is little threat. There was no shooting angle, nor any space, and yet he still thundered the ball into the top corner.Sustainability is an issue, for Guirassy and for Stuttgart, but this streak has shown what a clever goalscorer he is capable of being.
Games: 6
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Goals: 8 (3 penalties)
xG: 6.71
Whether Bayern have any method for creating open-play chances for Kane yet is questionable. They do not pivot around him the way Tottenham Hotspur did, so he has to insert himself into their moves as they develop, resulting in little chemistry in these early weeks.
Alphonso Davies created goals for him against Werder Bremen and Augsburg, both of which were finished well, and Kane was the beneficiary of a clever set-piece routine against Leverkusen, when he scored unmarked from a corner. He is being successful and producing at the rate required to keep a critical media at bay, but he is yet to give a signature performance.
Three of his eight goals have come from the penalty spot and his shots per 90 minutes from open play (3.41) are fewer than Guirassy (4.30) is generating at Stuttgart and almost half of what Victor Boniface (6.56) is producing for Leverkusen. It is not the productivity of a player at ease. Not yet.
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One caveat is that Bayern have been without Jamal Musiala for half of their Bundesliga games; his relationship with Kane is expected to add potency. Another issue is the instability at the base of Thomas Tuchel’s midfield, which is impacting every part of the pitch.
It seems inevitable that Kane will end his Bayern debut season with a healthy goal return but, as yet, his volume disguises that lack of rhythm.Games: 6
Goals: 7
xG: 5.93
Niko Kovac’s Wolfsburg are improved but with few distinguishing features. They are not direct and their build-up is not particularly methodical. Nor are they creating many chances from open play, which is the context Wind’s seven-in-six record deserves.
His goals this season can be divided into two categories: the instinctive and predatory, and the opportunities Wind helped construct. His double last weekend against Eintracht Frankfurt comprised a penalty rebound and a tap-in from a few yards, so belongs to the former, but Wind is a wily forward; he is no battering ram.
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The 24-year-old came through the academy at FC Copenhagen, where he was well thought of. This season, his third in the Bundesliga (but only his second full campaign, having joined Wolfsburg in January last year), he has already produced his highest goal return. He scored five in those final months of 2021-22 and then six the following season.
One of his distinguishing traits is movement, but when Wolfsburg are building attacks around the box, it is interesting to watch how Wind responds. He often exploits space that has been created, either by being in a position to receive a pass or lay-off, or capitalising on the break of the ball.
His double against Cologne in August depended upon precisely that. Two edge-of-the-box combinations with attacking midfielder Mattias Svanberg, two moves that unfurled too quickly for Cologne to cover, two goals for him, and three points for Wolfsburg.There are forwards in Germany with more obvious strengths. There are bigger, quicker and stronger players, certainly, and those who have more style, too. But Kovac’s Wolfsburg seem to better understand how to use Wind now; he is more prominent in their best attacking moments.
That being said, they have not scored a lot of goals this season. Just nine, and Wind accounts for two-thirds of those. But with Croatian artisan Lovro Majer signed over the summer and the talented Patrick Wimmer still at the club and playing from the right of a 4-2-3-1, it is easy to imagine greater fluency as the season progresses, and Wind profiting further from it.
Games: 6
Goals: 6 (1 penalty)
xG: 8.02
Boniface is more than just his goals; he is so broadly talented and watchable. He can play deep and either carry the ball forward or create with it, but he can slip beyond the defensive lines as well. He is a menace.
That variety has suited Leverkusen’s intricate football this season and made him dangerous. Manager Xabi Alonso encourages attacking moves to be built methodically, and Boniface’s versatility suits that pass-orientated approach.
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Of all the centre-forwards in the Bundesliga, he is arguably the hardest to cover one-on-one, as he glides past defenders so easily. FBref.com rates his 2.78 successful take-ons per 90 minutes in the top one per cent.
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Nevertheless, his goals have actually been more typical of a No 9. Leverkusen have created plenty of chances for Boniface — and he for himself — but the great majority of his shots have been taken from inside the box and from between the posts.
With the exception of a run-and-finish against Darmstadt, those scoring chances have been the result of his moving beyond the defensive line, his reactions deep in the area or, as against Heidenheim, pinning and rolling a defender on the edge of the box.He is the only player on this list underperforming their expected goals number, and that reflects the quality of chances that are being created for him, but also that he is still growing into the role of a full-time goalscorer.
Boniface may have been a joint-top scorer in last season’s Europa League (playing for Belgian side Union Saint-Gilloise), but he has never reached double figures in a league season before, either in Belgium or Norway (where he played for Bodo/Glimt).
As was the case against Bayern last month, Boniface can sometimes rush opportunities in a way that a pure goalscorer might not, but that is laboured criticism.
This is his first season in a major European league and his rate of adaption has been very quick.
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(Top photos: Getty Images)

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