Colts' NFL playoffs standings, odds, situations, tiebreakers: Week 14 recreation at Jaguars pivotal in AFC South race – Colts.com

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The Colts have misplaced three of their final 4 video games, and what was as soon as a 2.5-game lead within the AFC South has vanished coming into Week 14.
However: The Colts, with 5 video games left, nonetheless are totally accountable for their capability to win the AFC South for the primary time since 2014. To proceed to regulate their divisional future, although, the Colts should beat the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday at EverBank Stadium, a venue the place they haven’t gained since, additionally, 2014.
Here is how issues shake out for the Colts heading into Week 14:
AFC Standings
The tiebreakers are in there simply extra for understanding why groups are seeded the place proper now – in actuality, you do not fear about these till after Christmas on the earliest.
Playoff odds
Using The Athletic’s model, the Colts enter Week 14 with a 68 p.c likelihood of creating the playoffs, the bottom the mannequin has had the Colts since Week 3 (when preseason projections have been nonetheless a big consider figuring out a proportion). Throughout the AFC South, the chances to make the playoffs are:
Week 14 influence
If the Colts beat the Jaguars:
If the Jaguars beat the Colts:
Texans or Chiefs?
Sunday evening’s Texans-Chiefs recreation at Arrowhead is very large for the AFC playoff image – a Kansas Metropolis loss drops the three-time defending AFC champs to simply an 11 p.c likelihood of creating the postseason.
For the Colts’ functions although (and that is all with a Colts win over the Jaguars), a Texans win over the Chiefs would barely increase the Colts’ playoff odds to 86 p.c, however would drop their odds of profitable the AFC South to 45 p.c. A Chiefs win would really decrease the Colts’ total playoff odds to 84 p.c – since Kansas Metropolis has a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Colts – however would increase the Colts’ odds of profitable the AFC South from 55 p.c to 60 p.c.
The Colts’ path to the playoffs
The cleanest path for the Colts is to win their remaining three AFC South video games: At Jacksonville (Week 14), vs. Jacksonville (Week 17) and at Houston (Week 17). Even when the Colts have been to lose to the Seattle Seahawks (Week 15) and San Francisco 49ers (Week 16), and even when the Texans and Jaguars gained their remaining video games, the Colts would nonetheless win the division with an 11-6 report.
Each tiebreaker would go the Colts’ means on this situation: They’d personal a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Jaguars, and regardless that they’d break up the season sequence with Houston, they’d have the tiebreaker with a 5-1 report in opposition to the AFC South versus Houston being 4-2 in opposition to the AFC South.
There are different paths to profitable the division – past, in fact, going 5-0 down the stretch – however they contain convoluted tiebreakers we need not get into till, once more, after Christmas.
Remaining AFC South schedules
Three controversial officiating selections have been a part of the Houston Texans’ go-ahead landing drive within the fourth quarter of Sunday’s recreation at Lucas Oil Stadium. 
Gardner exited the sport within the first quarter.
Jones (fibula) was listed as a restricted participant on Wednesday, however was a full participant on Thursday and Friday.
Artwork Rooney Sportsmanship Award nominees are chosen for his or her demonstration of on-field sportsmanship. 
Wayne is in his seventh yr as a semifinalist, and has been a finalist yearly he is been eligible for the Professional Soccer Corridor of Fame. Mathis is in his fifth yr as a semifinalist whereas Vinatieri superior as a semifinalist in his second consecutive yr of eligibility. 
4 of the Colts remaining six video games are in opposition to the 2 AFC South groups – the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars – chasing them within the standings. 
The Colts, on each side of the ball, got here away from Sunday’s loss to the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs feeling like they did not make sufficient crucial, high-leverage performs to beat a group with a Corridor of Fame-level coach and quarterback. 
The Colts went three-and-out on their remaining 4 offensive possessions in Sunday’s 23-20 additional time loss to the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs. 
Charvarius Ward Sr. cleared concussion protocol this week and is line to return in opposition to the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs in his first recreation since sustaining a concussion he described as “scary” previous to the Colts’ Week 6 win over the Arizona Cardinals. 
Jones popped up on the Colts’ follow report as a restricted participant in Thursday’s follow, however he was a full participant Friday and can play Sunday in opposition to the Chiefs. 
Alec Pierce is at the moment on tempo for over 1,000 receiving yards this season, however he solely has two receptions for longer than 45 yards.
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