NFL Playoff Simulator: Which Week 13 video games have largest impression on postseason races, No. 1 draft choose probabilities? – The New York Occasions

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The Jaguars can provide their playoff odds a big increase by beating the lowly Titans. Norm Corridor / Getty Photographs
Three Thanksgiving Day upsets difficult the playoff paths for groups that entered the season as heavyweights (Kansas Metropolis Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and Detroit Lions). In the meantime, the Cincinnati Bengals took their first step towards an entire turnaround with the return of quarterback Joe Burrow.
With cold-weather soccer formally right here, groups within the playoff image need to solidify their probabilities. And NFL Draft positioning is up for grabs for groups on the alternative finish of the postseason race.
Right here’s a have a look at among the largest swing video games in Week 13, utilizing information from The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator.

The Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans have two very completely different outcomes on the road. The Titans (1-10) have the worst document within the NFL and enter Sunday with the most effective odds to safe the No. 1 choose in subsequent 12 months’s draft forward of the Las Vegas Raiders and New York Jets. A loss to the Jags would elevate these odds above 50 %.
The Jaguars (7-4) have received three of their final 4 video games (two in extra time). They're in place for a wild-card spot and would achieve additional insurance coverage in the event that they keep away from a slipup in opposition to the Titans. Jacksonville is one recreation behind the Colts within the AFC South and has its first recreation in opposition to the divisional leaders on deck in Week 14.

The Indianapolis Colts (8-3) had an opportunity to place themselves in a first-rate place for the highest seed within the AFC final week in opposition to the Chiefs. However Kansas Metropolis prevailed in extra time, so an important factor for the Colts this week is to bounce again with a win. As is true with each matchup within the NFL, that’s simpler stated than accomplished, but it surely is likely to be very true right here. 
Colts quarterback Daniel Jones is coping with a fractured fibula. He plans to play through it, however the top-ranked Houston Texans protection isn’t straightforward on quarterbacks. In a win in opposition to Josh Allen and the Buffalo Payments final week, Houston pressured three turnovers, sacked Allen eight instances and held the offense to 12 factors. The surging Texans have received 4 of their final 5, and their protection leads the league in yards and factors allowed per recreation. The Texans (6-5) are third within the AFC South, however a win of their first of two matchups in opposition to the present division leaders would put them proper again into the race and increase their playoff odds over the 50 % mark.

The Los Angeles Chargers (7-4) are one recreation forward of the Chiefs within the AFC West (and two again of the Denver Broncos) and in the course of a decent wild-card race. Nothing is assured with Los Angeles’ remaining schedule, which incorporates dwelling video games in opposition to the Philadelphia Eagles and Texans and street journeys to the Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys and Broncos. After getting blown out by the Jaguars in Week 11, now could be the time for the Chargers to return from their bye week and find their identity. A slipup this week places their playoff odds in jeopardy.
The two-9 Raiders noticed their odds for the No. 1 choose enhance after they misplaced to the Cleveland Browns final week. One other loss would strengthen these probabilities, however nonetheless depart them behind the Titans.

Buffalo (7-4) has misplaced two of its final three video games and has turned the ball over 9 instances over that stretch. The offense has struggled in these losses to the Miami Dolphins and Texans, and it’s clear that reigning MVP quarterback Josh Allen wants extra help within the passing recreation. Earlier this week, the Payments signed veteran broad receiver Brandin Cooks, who they hope will assistance on that entrance. Keon Coleman, a 2024 second-round choose, has been a wholesome scratch for the previous two weeks, and his standing for this Sunday remains unknown.
Street wins haven’t come straightforward for the Payments, although, as they've misplaced three of the final 4 away from Buffalo. Their probabilities to win the AFC East have dipped to about 7 % due to the surging New England Patriots, however their odds of securing no less than a wild-card berth would leap to round 90 % with a win this week. As for Pittsburgh (6-5), their playoff odds already bought a strong increase with the Baltimore Ravens’ loss on Thanksgiving evening to the Cincinnati Bengals, and a win Sunday would get them over the 50 % mark. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers didn't play in final week’s loss to the Chicago Bears with a fractured wrist, however coach Mike Tomlin stated he expects Rodgers to be ready for the Bills matchup.

The Jets (2-9) are third in line for the No. 1 choose, and good draft positioning may assist the rebuild under new coach Aaron Glenn. Quarterback Justin Fields was benched for the staff’s final recreation, in opposition to the Ravens. A loss to Atlanta would increase the Jets’ odds for the highest choose to above 20 %.
The Falcons (4-7) are already basically out of each playoff competition and No. 1 choose competition, so they're simply alongside for the journey on this recreation.

The NFC wild-card race is extra crowded after the Bears’ win in opposition to the Eagles on Friday. San Francisco (8-4) outlasted the Carolina Panthers final week regardless of three interceptions from quarterback Brock Purdy. He’ll be examined once more with Cleveland star defensive finish Myles Garrett, to not point out a forecast for unfavorable climate, with which Purdy has struggled in the past. Within the playoff race, the 49ers’ odds shift by practically 20 % whether or not they win or lose.
For the Browns (3-8), they're mainly eradicated from the working for the No. 1 choose, rising to only a 2 % probability with a loss this week.
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Jayna Bardahl is a workers author for The Athletic. She has labored as an editor and reporter masking Massive Ten soccer and males's basketball, and was an intern at The Boston Globe, the place she coated the Boston Crimson Sox and New England Patriots. Observe Jayna on Twitter @Jaynabardahl

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