Payments vs Chiefs prediction, keys to certainly one of NFL's most fierce rivalries – Democrat and Chronicle

ORCHARD PARK – Michael Hoecht has performed in precisely one recreation as a member of the Buffalo Bills, their breezy blowout last week over the Carolina Panthers.
His second recreation? That can be Sunday afternoon when he makes his Highmark Stadium debut towards none apart from the Kansas City Chiefs in what’s, because it often is, one probably the most eagerly-anticipated matchups on the NFL schedule.
“I feel we’ve all performed in these huge video games, these video games which can be necessary, however for us, you by no means need the sport to be greater than it’s, greater than only a recreation for us,” Hoecht mentioned. “We’ve received to organize prefer it’s some other opponent, as a result of if you begin to carry an excessive amount of emotion and out of doors stuff in, you’re going to finish up eager about that and never eager about what you’re truly doing within the recreation. The easiest way for us to make the fan base proud is for us to exit and play our greatest, and to play our greatest, we’ve received to remain internally targeted and do our factor.”
Properly, that’s straightforward for him to say as a result of up to now in his NFL profession, the Chiefs have been largely a delusion. Throughout his first 4 seasons within the NFL with the Rams, he confronted them simply as soon as – that in 2022, a 26-10 loss in a recreation the place he made six tackles.
For among the Payments – gamers like Josh Allen, Dion Dawkins, Matt Milano, Taron Johnson, and Dawson Knox – that is the tenth recreation towards Kansas Metropolis for the reason that begin of 2020 and everybody is aware of the historical past.
Hoecht hasn’t lived inside this rivalry which has turn into one of the crucial heated within the league, and due to this fact he hasn’t suffered the heartbreak that the Chiefs have precipitated the Payments by ending 4 of their final 5 seasons within the postseason.
So whereas it’s technically true that it’s simply certainly one of 17 video games within the standings, that is all the time greater than only a recreation to the Payments, a sense additionally shared by the Chiefs as a result of whereas they’ve owned the matchup in January, Buffalo has inflicted some ache on Kansas Metropolis by winning four of the five games in the regular season.
“I feel yearly presents itself another way, in a unique method,” Allen mentioned, attempting to downplay the drama and historical past. “They’ve gotten our quantity within the playoffs a number of occasions, and we perceive that. We’re simply targeted on attempting to go 1-0 this week within the 2025 season.”
As if he and Allen ready the pre-game script collectively, Mahomes primarily mentioned the identical factor.
“You might have an excellent familiarity with this crew clearly with what number of occasions we’ve performed them and the coaches and the defenses that they play,” Mahomes mentioned. “To me, it’s simply in regards to the subsequent time.”
The following time has arrived, and soccer nation can be tuned in.
Right here’s my preview of the sport:
There gained’t be too might surprises for both quarterback as a result of every has a financial institution of information in regards to the opposing protection.
“I feel we’ve performed them close to yearly since I’ve gotten right here,” Allen mentioned. “So yeah, I assume you may take a look at it from a perspective of we sort of perceive what they attempt to do to us, however there’s jabs, there’s counters, there’s various things that you are able to do seeing one another all through the years of constructing issues look the identical however being fully totally different.”
Within the 9 video games Allen has performed towards the Chiefs, he’s averaging 255.6 yards passing with 24 complete TDs and simply 5 interceptions whereas placing up 26.8 factors per recreation. Mahomes has averaged 273.9 yards passing with 22 TDs and three picks whereas scoring 27.0 factors per recreation. That’s how shut it has been between these two.
However whereas the marquee will invoice this as Allen vs. Mahomes, the battle of quarterbacks who’ve mixed to win three NFL MVP awards, the sport is about a lot extra.
▶ TE Dalton Kincaid: Final week in Carolina he returned to motion after lacking the Atlanta recreation and performed a minimal position, catching only one go for 23 yards and enjoying a mere 14 snaps. That was because of the run-heavy script the Payments used which had him off the sector, however on this recreation, Kincaid goes to want to step up in an enormous method. The Chiefs will be weak in the course of the sector towards opposing TEs as a result of gamers like LB Nick Bolton and S Chamarri Conner will be uncovered in protection. Kansas Metropolis’s CBs will probably deal with Buffalo’s underwhelming receivers, however Kincaid, and even Dawson Knox, may present Allen a key outlet.
▶ C Connor McGovern: He was a beast final week towards Carolina, destroying something in James Prepare dinner’s method, and Professional Soccer Focus graded him because the Payments’ greatest run blocker within the recreation. Sunday, he’ll be essential to the Payments success, not solely as a result of he’ll must play a key position in containing famous person DT Chris Jones, however he’ll be accountable for serving to Allen decipher the totally different blitzes that Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will dial up. Communication is crucial for an offensive line in each recreation, nevertheless it will get ratcheted up towards Spagnuolo who’s a grasp at developing with the best name on the proper time. McGovern’s seven pressures allowed are fewest among the many beginning linemen.
▶ DE Joey Bosa: He was brought to Buffalo to improve the go rush and he has performed that. PFF grades him because the league’s fourth-best edge rusher which has helped the Payments produce a 9.8% sack price, second-best within the league. Getting stress on Mahomes is crucial as a result of when he’s stored clear, Mahomes is finishing 73.8% of his passes however when he’s beneath stress, he has accomplished simply 47.2% and brought 14 sacks. With the DT place so depleted, search for the Payments to create a rush group that features Bosa and Greg Rousseau on the perimeters and the versatile Hoecht shifting inside. And amongst their duties can be attempting to comprise Mahomes within the pocket and never let him get to the perimeters as a result of when he does that, he’s lethal as a thrower and a runner (280 speeding yards).
▶ CB Maxwell Hairston: It’s for offenses like this that the Bills used their 2025 first-round pick on the fastest player on the NFL scouting mix. The Chiefs have pace in every single place, and Hairston can match it. The issue, in fact, is his inexperience as he has performed only one recreation and 15 protection snaps. Mahomes is a infamous zone killer which is why he has had a lot success towards the zone-heavy Payments, however when Hairston is within the recreation together with CB Christian Benford, the Payments can play extra man-to-man and so long as Hairston doesn’t make huge errors, the Payments may have a greater probability in go protection, particularly if the frenzy element is succeeding.
The Payments have owned the Chiefs within the common season, having gained the final 4 video games, three of these in Kansas Metropolis after which final season when their victory in Orchard Park was one of many video games of the yr within the NFL. However proper now, it’s powerful to see that taking place once more for Buffalo.
Kansas Metropolis’s roster is healthier than Buffalo’s and the hole has widened now that the Payments are going to be with out DT Ed Oliver, who joins fellow DTs DaQuan Jones and TJ Sanders on the sidelines. Despite the fact that it appears like LBs Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano can be again, the Payments’ secondary – now mixing in rookies like Maxwell Hairston and Jordan Hancock to affix inconsistent Cole Bishop – is a priority towards this Chiefs passing offense that has weapons in every single place.
On the opposite facet, Buffalo’s stagnant passing recreation goes to be an issue till it isn’t, and one has to marvel when it gained’t be, particularly with WR Joshua Palmer in all probability out once more. Prepare dinner can carry the Payments a great distance, however in some unspecified time in the future he’ll need assistance and if the Payments are going to win, this must be a kind of video games.
▶ WR Rashee Rice: That mentioned, the Payments are nonetheless going to be at a drawback when the Chiefs throw as a result of Mahomes has so many viable and proficient choices, led by Rice. He sat out the primary six video games on suspension however within the two video games he has performed he has caught 16 of 18 targets for 135 yards and three TDs. His return makes everybody else extra harmful, and that’s just a little scary. In contrast to final week when Benford traveled with Carolina’s solely viable WR goal, Tet McMillan, he can’t do this on this recreation with Rice as a result of the Chiefs even have Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown, to not point out JuJu Smith-Schuster and Tyquan Thornton.
▶ TE Travis Kelce: It’s merely unbelievable how he has continued to be such a productive participant now on the age of 36. He’s truly been higher this season than in 2024 as he’s averaging 4.3 yards extra per catch than he did in 2024 and has already matched his TD complete with three. He has 37 receptions, his 474 yards are second amongst all TEs solely to Tyler Warren of the Colts, and a whopping 260 of these yards have come after the catch. Kelce has tortured the Payments by means of the years as a result of he all the time finds holes of their zone protection, and there might extra holes than normal as NCB Taron Johnson has not had an excellent season, and none of Buffalo’s LBs have carried out nicely in protection.
▶ DE George Karlaftis: What makes him so powerful is that he’s relentless. He doesn’t all the time win instantly, however so long as the QB nonetheless has the ball, Karlaftis is after him and that’s how he will get nearly all of his sacks. PFF has him with 42 QB pressures which is tied for third-most amongst edge rushers and people have led to a team-best 4.5 sacks. He additionally advantages from the within stress Jones generates which frequently flushes QBs to Karlaftis. He flips sides so Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown will each see him, they usually have to stay diligent. Brown has allowed a sack on a team-high 16 pressures, whereas Dawkins has allowed two sacks on 13 pressures.
▶ LB Nick Bolton: Whereas he’s not nice in protection, Bolton is a power towards the run and he and fellow LB Drue Tranquill can be integral in slowing down Prepare dinner. Bolton has made 26 tackles on operating performs in keeping with PFF, and 16 of these have been thought of stops, that means a sort out that precipitated a failed play for the offense. That’s double the quantity of stops Tranquill has. Bolton can also be a weapon as a blitzer and he has 12 pressures.
Sal Maiorana has lined the Buffalo Payments for greater than 4 many years together with 36 years because the full-time beat author/columnist for the D&C. He has written quite a few books in regards to the historical past of the crew, and he’s additionally co-host of the BLEAV in Payments podcast/YouTube present. He will be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you may comply with him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social.

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