Worth is worth, regardless of the place — or how — you discover it. And that's what we'll goal to do every week on this area — discover worth.
Ben Solak and Seth Walder deliver totally different views into how they strategy sports activities betting. Solak leans on his experience in participant analysis and the X's and O's to search out edges. Walder depends on statistical fashions to select plus-expected worth bets.
These weekly picks is not going to be restricted to a sure wager kind. From spreads and moneylines to totals and even defensive participant props, an excellent worth may be discovered wherever.
With that, let's dive into Week 2.
Word: This file will probably be up to date via Saturday with new bets — together with Seth Walder's defensive props — as the chances change into out there.
Solak: Two of Week 1's highest-scoring groups meet in Week 2, and I like the best way each offenses match into the opposing defenses.
Josh Allen, Joe Brady and the Payments fried Aaron Glenn's protection final season with 48 factors, with Allen averaging an absurd .46 EPA per dropback. In Week 1, the Jets protection beneath Glenn seemed a lot the identical as his Detroit Lions protection did — they performed man on the third-highest fee of Week 1 and blitzed on the seventh-highest fee. Anticipate Allen to scramble quite a bit, which we'll get to in one other wager in a while.
Can the Jets throw their method into the sport in the event that they're trailing towards the Payments? That's the large query right here. Final week the Jets had a run fee over expectation, as measured by Subsequent Gen Stats of 21.4% — that will have been the seventh-highest quantity in a single sport final season. They didn't need to throw the ball a lot with Justin Fields again there, and that's an inexpensive plan — but when they're in an early gap, they may must.
The excellent news is that I feel they will run it effectively towards Buffalo's gentle bins and nickel personnel, such that they gained't must abandon the run except they're really getting blown out of the water. It could be value taking a primary half over as an alternative of a full sport over, for those who're actually nervous about sport script — however I'm impressed sufficient with the Jets offense to belief them to contribute to the total sport quantity.
Solak: The Chiefs secondary seemed surprisingly inclined of their season opener towards the Los Angeles Chargers, and I'll be searching for overs in Chiefs video games because the season goes on and their receiver room returns to well being — however not this week. The Eagles stay one of many heaviest operating groups over expectation — particularly with Jalen Hurts scrambling on a whopping 24% of his dropbacks in Week 1 — and as such encourage a operating clock. With Xavier Worthy doubtless laid up for this sport, the Chiefs lack big-play threats and mission to maneuver the ball methodically as they throw to JuJu Smith-Schuster and Travis Kelce.
Solak: I used to be a believer within the Titans in preseason, and after throwing away an eminently winnable sport towards a troublesome Denver Broncos squad, I'm backing them for his or her dwelling opener towards the Rams. Each beginning guards for Los Angeles, Kevin Dotson and Steve Avila, are anticipated to overlook this sport. That's an enormous deal towards the defensive sort out duo of Jeffery Simmons and T'Vondre Sweat, which is definitely a top-five duo within the league proper now. The Rams offense feasts towards poor tackling secondaries, however Tennessee's is without doubt one of the greatest.
The Titans' go safety and operating sport suffered towards Denver's loaded defensive entrance and heavy blitz packages, and whereas the Rams' defensive position is the power of their protection, it's a minimize under Denver's. I like rookie QB Cam Ward to have a calmer sport at dwelling and for Calvin Ridley to not drop as many first downs (three!) as he did in Week 1. Titans preserve this shut — and I'll even be sprinkling somewhat on the moneyline.
Solak: The Steelers offense is probably my strongest Week 2 fade. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers led the league in throws behind the road of scrimmage in Week 1, but had the third-highest explosive go fee. That merely isn't sustainable. The Jets secondary had tons of busted coverages; that doesn't occur in a Mike Mcdonald protection. It'll even be far harder for Rodgers to interpret the pre-snap image of Seattle's movement-heavy protection relative to the Jets' line up-and-play strategy, and that's his solely remaining superpower now that his mobility has depreciated.
Seattle's offensive strategy was peculiar in Week 1 — little play-action, a number of empty units — and I harbor some concern that they stroll out with a unique sport plan in Week 2. However this Steelers defensive position has sufficient of a expertise benefit over the Seahawks' group that I feel Seattle struggles to maneuver the ball regardless of how they play offense.
Solak: Stylistically, that is the kind of protection towards which Allen breaks the pocket a ton, and he can get to this quantity on just a few makes an attempt if he breaks off an enormous one. However the Jets secondary actually struggled in Week 1 passing off routes and adjusting to movement; their tackling in area additionally left a lot to be desired. The Payments offense ought to cruise.
Solak: We noticed an enormous day for Saquon Barkley via the air towards the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1, as they elected to play virtually nothing however zone protection towards the Eagles' passing offense. That's probably not a one-off, as new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus has all the time been one of many highest zone protection defensive coaches, and accordingly, operating backs see a rise in targets and receptions when dealing with him.
Walder:We went two for 2 on these in Week 1, so let's preserve it rolling. The concept right here is straightforward: for the reason that begin of final season, operating backs catch passes on 10% of man protection performs however on 15% of zone protection performs. So my idea is that that isn't absolutely baked into the betting line, and due to this fact I goal overs towards zone protection groups and unders towards man protection groups.
Final week in his first sport because the Cowboys defensive coordinator, Matt Eberflus ran zone protection on an virtually outrageous 86% of dropbacks, main all groups in Week 1 (it was tied for the Tenth-highest zone protection fee in a regular-season sport for the reason that begin of final season). The beneficiary in Week 2 must be Tracy (and maybe Cam Skattebo, too).
Additionally value contemplating:
Walder: There's two methods this could be a nice wager. First, what if the Boutte we noticed in Week 1 is simply the actual deal? Heck, what if the Boutte we noticed within the final three video games of 2024 and Week 1 — when he earned a mixed 2.8 yards per route run! — is the actual deal? In that case, getting +850 on a 100-yard sport appears fairly darn good. However then there's additionally this: Boutte is an excessive vertical menace. No extensive receiver with not less than 20 routes in Week 1 ran the next fee of go routes and deep fades than Boutte (40%). What which means is that his right-tail final result is extra doubtless than most to ship. And that's an enormous motive why my mannequin — which costs this prop at +537 — likes him on this alternate line.
Walder: I'm going again to the effectively once more with Kupp after shedding out on the next alt line of his final week. Kupp's debut as a Seahawk was disappointing, little doubt about it. Three targets, two receptions, 15 yards. However there was one encouraging quantity in there: he was on the sphere on 88% of the staff's dropbacks. That, to me, is why it's value holding the road on him.
From the mannequin's perspective: this can be a participant whose common prop line final yr was 66.8. Even in a brand new offense with a unique quarterback and a yr older, he ought to be plus-money to get 40 receiving yards. It makes Kupp -165 to hit this quantity.
Whereas I don't assume the mannequin fairly handles a job change completely, directionally I'm keen to belief it.
Walder: The perfect mixture of interception avoidance is a quarterback who doesn't throw many picks whose staff is a heavy favourite. And look what we’ve right here! Because the begin of final season, Allen has a 0.9% interception fee (together with playoffs), which is mainly half the league common, and the Payments space 6.5-point favourite on the Jets. The Payments shouldn't must go too often in the event that they get out to a lead, and when Allen does go he ought to be capable of restrict his dangers, given the opponent. My mannequin costs this beneath at -154.
Solak: Daniel Jones was spectacular in his Week 1 Colts debut, however this quantity shouldn’t be plus cash. For one, the Colts had been truly pretty dropback-heavy in Week 1 towards the Miami Dolphins once you regulate for the script. Within the first half, that they had a run fee over expectation of solely +2.8% — above the league common. They referred to as a dropback on 58.1% of their alternatives. In a projected impartial script towards the Broncos, we may see that whole dropback fee enhance.
