Seven ideas concerning the Phillies, who maintain a 7-game lead because the Mets arrive – The New York Occasions

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Now, within the wake of Trea Turner’s hamstring damage, two numbers matter most to the Phillies: 26 and 4. There are 26 days till Recreation 1 of the Nationwide League Division Sequence. And, with 19 video games to play, the Phillies maintain a four-game lead for the NL’s No. 2 seed, which comes with a first-round bye.
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Impulsively, securing that bye feels paramount.
The Phillies have no idea how lengthy they’ll be with out Turner, who’s having the perfect season by a Phillies shortstop in nearly 20 years. If he should miss time, even the minimal 10 days for an injured checklist stint, his quest for a batting title might be over. Turner told reporters from The Philadelphia Inquirer and Phillies Nation that he’ll have an MRI on Monday to find out the severity of his hamstring pressure.
“There’s some concern there, clearly,” Phillies supervisor Rob Thomson instructed reporters. “He’s having an incredible 12 months. He’s a giant a part of this ballclub.”
Right here, beginning with Turner, are seven ideas on the Phillies, who’re seven up on the New York Mets because the golf equipment start a four-game collection.
1. The quick rush is to recollect what occurred to Turner final season; he missed six weeks with a Grade 2 left hamstring pressure. If it’s the identical prognosis, the Phillies may not nonetheless be enjoying baseball by the point Turner can return.
However a milder hamstring damage is manageable. Turner suffered a type of in 2017 to his proper hamstring — the identical one he tweaked in Sunday’s 5-4 loss to the Miami Marlins — and missed solely 11 days. Final season, Bryce Harper was sidelined by a gentle hamstring pressure and missed 10 days. Brandon Marsh missed 12 days in 2024 with a strained proper hamstring.
So there’s a spread of outcomes.
If Turner misses time, the Phillies would appoint Edmundo Sosa because the common shortstop. Sosa has adeptly changed Turner earlier than, however he’s been uncovered when he has to play each day. He’s crushed lefties once more in 2025, however his .591 OPS towards righties is a profession worst. The Phillies may recall Otto Kemp to backfill the right-handed bench spot vacated by Sosa.
There isn’t a changing Turner, who has graded as one of many extra useful gamers within the league this season due to his defensive enhancements and changes on the plate. He’s been extra aggressive on the bases. He was tentative in 2024 upon coming back from that hamstring damage. So, even when Turner can return earlier than the Phillies’ first postseason sport, he’ll need to clear that psychological hurdle, too.
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2. Developing the lineup with out Turner, even when it’s for 2 weeks, gained’t be the best activity for Thomson. Bryson Stott has hung out because the leadoff man this season, however transferring him again there would put three lefty hitters — Stott, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper — on the prime of the lineup. That gained’t work. Even when Thomson bumped Schwarber to first, a well-known spot for him, the Phillies would profit from a right-handed hitter between Schwarber and Harper.
There aren’t any apparent decisions.
One thought: J.T. Realmuto. He’s cooled down within the final two weeks and has solely a .578 OPS towards lefties this season. However since July 1, Realmuto has hit .333/.368/.574 (.942 OPS) in 57 plate appearances versus lefties.
Placing Realmuto second would enable the Phillies to maintain Alec Bohm in a run-production spot, fourth, though he has two extra-base hits in 18 video games since coming back from a cracked rib. Perhaps the Phillies will slot Bohm second to assist him return to his method.
With out Turner, one or two of the righty bats within the lineup need to do one thing. Harrison Bader doesn’t profile as a top-of-the-order bat, however he can assist whereas batting fifth or sixth. The Phillies are platooning in left and proper discipline; there can be a higher onus on Nick Castellanos and Weston Wilson (or whoever performs left discipline) at any time when the Phillies face a lefty.
It’ll be a problem.
3. Although this week’s video games towards the Mets include significance and a spotlight, the highest-leverage remaining video games are in all probability in every week when the Phillies go to Dodger Stadium for a three-game collection (Sept. 15-17). They created a ways between the Los Angeles Dodgers within the final week. It had been an incredible week till Turner went down.
If the Phillies take two of three from the Dodgers, they’ll have gained the season collection, which is the tiebreaker.
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Regardless, a four-game lead for the bye is important. The Phillies have been already compromised with out Zack Wheeler, and avoiding a three-game Wild Card Sequence would assist everybody. For the entire consternation a couple of fourth starter, if the Phillies safe the bye, they might not want one till Recreation 4 of the Nationwide League Championship Sequence. They’ll take care of it then.
Aaron Nola and Taijuan Walker have endured first-inning stumbles over the previous two weeks. That’s an issue. Walker Buehler, who will enter the rotation Friday towards the Kansas Metropolis Royals, wanted 78 pitches for under three innings over the weekend at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. He didn’t use his cutter, a pitch that’s been crushed this season, as a lot as earlier than. The Phillies are hoping he might be competent down the stretch, and if he pitches his manner into the October plans as a right-handed fireman, they’ll contemplate it.
4. The Phillies examined Jesús Luzardo in Saturday’s outing towards Miami; he put the tying runs on base within the sixth inning with two walks. However Luzardo remained within the sport to face a lefty, Troy Johnston, at 98 pitches. Johnston hit a weak fly ball to middle on Luzardo’s a centesimal pitch. The lefty escaped with six strong innings.
He seemingly gained’t be afforded that a lot leeway in October.
How the Phillies deal with Luzardo looms as one of many larger postseason questions. They may slot Ranger Suárez, a softer-tossing lefty, between Cristopher Sánchez and Luzardo. Sánchez may have probably the most leeway. And, though Luzardo has a 2.64 ERA in his final eight begins, his tendency to run deep counts within the center innings will present sufficient pause.
Luzardo has much better command throughout his first time by means of a lineup. Opponents’ on-base share the primary time dealing with Luzardo is .285. It rises to .342 the second time by means of the batting order. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 5.4 the primary time by means of and a couple of.8 the second time.
It’s not unreasonable for the Phillies to deal with Luzardo as they’ve Suárez in earlier postseasons: Rip it for 3 innings, then have a fast hook if hassle arises after. However filling these center innings is less complicated stated than finished.
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5. Phillies hitters swung at 33.2 p.c of the pitches they noticed out of the strike zone in August. That was the second-highest chase fee for a group in any month this season; Colorado had a 33.4 p.c fee in July.
It was a regarding development for an offense that has improved its method. The August chase fee was the membership’s highest for a month since September 2024. Everybody is aware of what occurred subsequent.
So, it’s one thing to watch this month. Within the first 5 video games of September, the Phillies chased solely 27 p.c of pitches out of the zone. This week’s Mets collection is an efficient litmus check for the offensive method.
6. Schwarber hasn’t homered since his historic four-homer game final month. The nine-game drought is his longest of the season. He hadn’t pushed in a single run for the reason that four-home sport till a run-scoring single within the ninth inning Sunday.
Although it’s encouraging that the Phillies may nonetheless go 6-3 in these 9 video games, Schwarber turns into much more necessary in Turner’s absence.
In August, Schwarber noticed the next share of non-fastballs (57.7 p.c) than in any month of his profession since 2015. That is one space the place Schwarber hasn’t improved from 2024 to 2025, and it’s one thing groups will proceed to take advantage of. Schwarber slugged .458 on non-fastballs in 2024. It’s .410 this season.
The Mets, for instance, have dramatically altered their method towards Schwarber in contrast with final season. New York pitchers threw Schwarber 63 p.c fastballs in 2024 (together with postseason), however have thrown solely 46 p.c fastballs in 2025. No matter technique they’ve deployed has labored; Schwarber had a .627 OPS towards the Mets in 2024 and a .636 mark this season.
7. The Phillies made a collection of minor-league promotions Sunday as seasons wind down. Shortstop prospect Aidan Miller will head to Triple-A Lehigh Valley for the ultimate two weeks of the Worldwide League schedule, as reported by Chase Ford. Aroon Escobar and Dante Nori, each of whom started the season at Low A, will go to Double-A Studying. They’d been enjoying at Excessive-A Jersey Shore, which ended its season Sunday.
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Two different Jersey Shore righties, Alex McFarlane and Saul Teran, had already joined Double A this previous week. McFarlane is pitching as a reliever after beginning 18 video games; he’s been as much as 100 mph out of the bullpen. The Phillies should make a 40-man roster determination on McFarlane in the course of the offseason. He may proceed pitching within the Arizona Fall League subsequent month.
Miller and Nori are Arizona Fall League candidates, too. Though Miller gained’t issue into the 2025 plans, a robust end will put him within the 2026 dialog because the Phillies plot their big-league roster. Miller, 21, hit .259/.382/.427 at Studying with 51 stolen bases. He’s raised his OPS by 113 factors since Aug. 1.
Nori, based on a Phillies player-development staffer, “is our most-improved man.” The 2024 first-round choose has hit for extra energy and improved his reads in middle discipline. Escobar’s energy numbers have dipped deeper into the season, however rival evaluators contemplate him one of many higher pure hitters within the group.
Justin Crawford, the best pure hitter in the farm system, hasn’t performed since final Thursday. He suffered a concussion and cracked some tooth on account of a nasty collision with Kemp in shallow left discipline.
(High picture of Trea Turner: Carmen Mandato / Getty Photographs)
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Matt Gelb is a senior author for The Athletic protecting the Philadelphia Phillies. He has coated the group since 2010 whereas at The Philadelphia Inquirer, together with a yearlong pause from baseball as a reporter on the town desk. He’s a graduate of Syracuse College and Central Bucks Excessive Faculty West.

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