2025 NBA Finals: Seven numbers to know for Recreation 7 – NBA

The 2024-25 NBA championship is all the way down to 1 recreation. Brush up on all of the sequence traits earlier than Sunday's winner-take-all conflict.
John Schuhmann
Oklahoma Metropolis has the benefit of taking part in Sunday's large contest at residence, however something can occur in Recreation 7.
OKLAHOMA CITY — The NBA Finals have arrived at Recreation 7, 48 minutes (or a number of extra) to find out if the Indiana Pacers or Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder will win their first NBA championship.
If the Thunder win, they are going to be, statistically, among the finest champions in NBA historical past. If the Pacers win, they’ll be one of the crucial unlikely groups to have raised the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
Listed here are seven numbers to know prematurely of Recreation 7 on Sunday (8 ET, ABC) …
Dwelling groups are 15-4 in Recreation 7 of the Finals, however the final one (2016) was gained by the street staff. Beginning with that recreation (and never together with three Recreation 7s within the 2020 bubble), the street staff has gained 14 of the final 26 Recreation 7s within the playoffs.
That mark contains a 21-point win for the Pacers in Recreation 7 of final 12 months’s Japanese Convention semifinals, once they shot a playoff-record 67.1% at Madison Sq. Backyard.
The Thunder gained Recreation 7 of this 12 months’s Western Convention semis by 32 points, holding the Denver Nuggets to only 93 factors on 101 possessions.
Six gamers within the sequence have performed in a number of Recreation 7s …
If you happen to assume Finals Recreation 7s are usually uglier than the sequence as a complete, you’re proper.
There have been 4 Recreation 7s within the Finals for which we now have play-by-play information. On common, the groups have scored 6.7 fewer factors per 100 possessions in these Recreation 7s than they did over the primary six video games of these sequence. The tempo has additionally been a mean of two.4 possessions (per staff) per 48 minutes slower.
Finals Recreation 7 tempo & effectivity vs. first 6 video games of sequence
OffRtg = Factors scored per 100 possessions
Tempo = Possessions (per staff) per 48 minutes
After all, slower tempo and decrease effectivity results in a better probability that the sport can be shut. The final eight Recreation 7s of the Finals have all been decided by single digits.
The Thunder and Pacers have averaged 110.0 factors per 100 possessions and 99.8 possessions (per staff) per 48 minutes by the primary six video games, so we should always anticipate to see one thing nearer to a degree per possession in Recreation 7.
The Pacers have gained the 2 ugliest video games of the Finals: Recreation 1 (107.8 mixed per 100) and Recreation 6 (98.5), and are 2-6 in the playoffs (2-2 on this sequence) once they’ve scored fewer than 110 factors per 100 possessions.
The Thunder are 1-6 once they’ve scored fewer than 110 per 100, with their one win being Recreation 4 in Denver. Six of these seven video games have been on the street, with the one exception being their Recreation 1 of the Finals.
The Thunder have scored 19.4 more points per 100 possessions of their three wins within the Finals (120.4) than they’ve of their three losses (101.0). That finish of the ground has been way more determinative than the Pacers’ offense (110.6 vs. 108.5 per 100).
“Our protection has been extra constant, in these playoffs particularly,” Thunder coach Mark Daigneault mentioned Saturday, “than our offense has.”
It’s a make-or-miss league and three Thunder position gamers — Alex Caruso, Aaron Wiggins and Cason Wallace — have shot a lot better within the three wins (combined effective field goal percentage of 59.8%) than they’ve within the three losses (39.0%).
However these three haven’t taken a ton of pictures, and general, the distinction within the Thunder’s efficient subject objective share of their wins (52.2%) vs. their losses (48.4%) isn’t big. Simply as necessary has been a decrease turnover price (13.9 vs. 15.4 per 100 possessions), the next free throw price (40.6 vs. 31.9 makes an attempt per 100 pictures from the sector) and the next offensive rebounding share (36.4% vs. 24.3%).
The Thunder have taken solely 32.9% of their shots from 3-point vary. That’s the bottom price for any staff in any sequence in these playoffs and a drop from their price of 40.6% through the first three rounds. Over the six video games, they’ve been outscored by 54 factors from 3-point vary.
The a lot larger drop has been with their catch-and-shoot makes an attempt, from 28.5 per game (third among the many 16 playoff groups) by the primary three rounds to only 20.2 per game within the Finals.
Over the six video games, the Pacers have thrown 705 more passes than the Thunder, in keeping with Second Spectrum monitoring.
A giant motive the Thunder have seen a giant drop in catch-and-shoot alternatives is that they’ve seen an enormous drop in ball motion from the primary three rounds, throwing 65 fewer passes per 24 minutes of possession.
The Pacers in the meantime, have moved the ball greater than they did by the convention finals, after which they ranked second in ball motion (only a tick behind the Golden State Warriors) within the playoffs.
Passes per 24 minutes of possession, Finals vs. first 3 rounds
TOP = Minutes of possession
Cross/24 = Passes per 24 minutes of possession
Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams have handed on 29% of their drives, down from 39% by the primary three rounds. They’ve extra turnovers (13) than assists (10) on these drives.
During the last 4 video games, the Thunder, as a staff, have 65 assists and 67 turnovers. The three video games in Indiana (Video games 3, 4 and 6) got here with their three lowest assist-turnover ratios of the season (104 complete video games).
Although their free-throw price has been a lot increased of their wins than of their losses (see above), the Thunder have nonetheless outscored the Pacers on the free-throw line in all six video games and by a complete of 35 factors (154-119). In actual fact, the Pacers have been outscored on the line in 14 of their final 16 video games.
That’s extra about their protection than their offense. Within the playoffs, their opponent free throw price is 33.6 attempts per 100 shots from the field, the best opponent price for any staff that’s performed past the primary spherical within the final 10 postseasons.
Amongst 96 gamers who’ve performed no less than 150 minutes in these playoffs, Thomas Bryant (5.4), Nesmith (5.2) and Ben Sheppard (4.7) rank first, second and fifth in fouls per 36 minutes.
Andrew Nembhard has defended Gilgeous-Alexander for 51 minutes and 29 seconds over the six video games. That’s 18:31 greater than every other participant has defended any opponent on this sequence. (Subsequent most is Dort defending Haliburton for 32:58.)
It’s a very powerful matchup for both staff on this sequence and will proceed to be so in Recreation 7, although in keeping with Second Spectrum …
The highlight can be on the sequence MVP on Sunday, and it’s the Thunder’s offense that has decided Video games 1-6. However something on both finish of the ground might swing Recreation 7 and, in the end, the championship.
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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You possibly can e-mail him here, discover his archive here and follow him on X.
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The Thunder and Pacers are set to have interaction within the single-most vital occasion in any of their careers: Recreation 7 of the Finals.
Kia MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to steer the pack, however might an Indiana star swipe the award with a Recreation 7 win?
Pascal Siakam’s 16-point, 13-rebound, three-assist outing fueled the Pacers and he discovered himself on the spotlight reel.
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The Thunder and Pacers are set to have interaction within the single-most vital occasion in any of their careers: Recreation 7 of the Finals.
Kia MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to steer the pack, however might an Indiana star swipe the award with a Recreation 7 win?
Pascal Siakam’s 16-point, 13-rebound, three-assist outing fueled the Pacers and he discovered himself on the spotlight reel.
Tyrese Haliburton perseveres, OKC lacks a killer intuition, Indy's bench delivers once more and Recreation 7 awaits Sunday (8 ET, ABC).
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