Lead Draft Author
The Buffalo Payments and Kansas Metropolis Chiefs are growing into one of many NFL’s greatest non-divisional rivalries, and Sunday figures to be one other stirring chapter for the 2 franchises.
The Chiefs try what no staff has but executed: win three straight Tremendous Bowls. The Payments, who’ve by no means received the Lombardi Trophy, are attempting to get again to the sport for the primary time because the 1993 marketing campaign.
The groups’ rivalry technically dates again to 1960, within the AFL’s inaugural season, however the latest showdowns between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have escalated it to a different degree. The Payments and Chiefs have met eight occasions since 2020, together with thrice within the postseason.
Buffalo is 4-1 within the regular-season conferences, and Kansas Metropolis is 3-0 of their playoff video games — together with epic Divisional Spherical video games throughout the 2021 and 2023 seasons.
After Sunday, Allen and Mahomes will path just one elite QB duo — Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, who confronted one another 5 occasions within the postseason — for many playoff matchups between two quarterbacks.
The Payments have been the one staff to take down the Chiefs this season once they have been taking part in their starters, a 30-21 game in Buffalo again in Week 11. This one shifts to Arrowhead Stadium, the place the Chiefs haven’t misplaced a significant recreation since Christmas 2023.
Sunday’s weather in Kansas City is predicted to be chilly, dropping into the 20s, though snow doesn’t look like within the forecast. However this matchup seems like an all-timer, whether or not it’s sunny and clear or chilly and moist.
Listed below are 4 issues to look at for on this Championship Sunday showdown between the Payments and Chiefs:
1) Do the Chiefs dare blitz Josh Allen this time? The Payments have been a extra balanced offense in 2024, dialing again on Allen’s cross makes an attempt and working the ball barely extra usually. The end result has been arguably Allen’s most effective season on a play-by-play foundation, decreasing his sacks and interceptions considerably. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spaguolo has by no means actually slowed Allen down of their quite a few conferences, and it is value questioning if the Chiefs have to blitz much less usually on this recreation. On the one hand, that has been their bread and butter — and the Chiefs are far more practical getting strain with additional rushers. However then again, Allen has dealt with the blitz exceptionally nicely — each traditionally in opposition to Kansas Metropolis and this season on the entire.
The Chiefs blitzed at a 35.8% fee this season, which was the best within the NFL, and so they did so at a fair increased fee (37.8%) in Week 11. Allen threw one silly (and uncharacteristic, for this season) interception versus strain in that recreation, however he in any other case dealt with the Chiefs, not taking a single sack.
Spagnuolo took a much more conservative method within the 2023 Divisional Spherical assembly in opposition to Allen and the Payments, blitzing a mere 17.8% of his dropbacks — the bottom blitz fee for any Chiefs video games over the previous two seasons, per Subsequent Gen Stats — and it appeared to work. Allen was 5 of 6 passing for 48 yards in opposition to the blitz, however on non-blitz passes he was solely 21 for 33 for 138 yards, yielding a meager 4.2 yards per cross try.
In fact, loads depends upon the battle up entrance. Chris Jones and a robust Chiefs entrance might be battling with the Payments’ elite offensive line. Offensive tackles Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown have anchored the sides, the unit is strong up the center and Buffalo has additionally leaned on sixth OL Alec Anderson as an everyday contributor, particularly within the run recreation.
Jones has just one sack in eight video games in opposition to the Payments, however he notched seven pressures versus Allen in Week 11 and prompted issues up entrance. Regardless, he’ll want extra assist this time round. George Karlaftis is coming off his first career three-sack game in opposition to the Texans, however he was held quiet final time in Buffalo. Charles Omenihu, who missed the primary assembly, additionally has come on as a strain supply. If the Chiefs are going to hurry 4 extra usually than regular, they will all have to be extremely efficient penetrating into the backfield.
2) Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs attempting to proceed ball-control success. The Payments have been the stingiest staff when it comes to giveaways, turning the ball over a mere eight occasions all season, together with playoffs. However the Chiefs in some way are on a fair higher roll with turnovers not too long ago.
The final time Kansas Metropolis turned the ball over in a recreation? That may be the 2 it had — each Mahomes picks — within the final assembly in Week 11. Since then, the Chiefs have compelled 11 opponent turnovers, with zero fumbles or interceptions of their very own.
Not shockingly, that method has been an enormous a part of their success. The Chiefs have now received 37 straight video games, relationship again to 2019, once they’ve received the turnover battle. They even beat the Payments in that 2023 Divisional recreation regardless of being minus-1 in turnovers that contest — the one NFL staff to win a playoff recreation within the adverse because the 2022 Divisional Spherical.
It has been more durable for the Chiefs to hold onto the soccer in opposition to the Payments historically, as Buffalo holds a web plus-7 turnover margin of their final 10 conferences. That is the Payments’ M.O.: They wish to flip you over. Buffalo’s protection has suffered sufficient attrition that its not geared to close down high-powered offenses; its greatest path is stealing possessions, because the group did within the first assembly (plus-1 in turnovers).
The Payments completed the common season tied for third in turnovers created (32), and so they’ve added three extra within the playoffs. Attending to Mahomes and getting arms on his passes is unquestionably an enormous a part of Sean McDermott’s recreation plan for Sunday. However Mahomes will deliver a 262-pass INT-less streak into the convention title recreation.
The Payments received strain speeding 4 on Mahomes’ first cross try in Week 11, and he overthrew his receiver for an interception. That strain continued on the following sequence, however its effectiveness did wane a bit over the course of the sport. One thing related performed out final week in Buffalo, because the Payments protection began out with excessive vitality and effectiveness on the entire however appeared to run low on gasoline by recreation’s finish.
Defending Mahomes is a largely robust offensive line that nonetheless has needed to adapt. Joe Thuney has executed his greatest since sliding out to left sort out, however he is had his arms full as a cross blocker. Buffalo’s Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa have had good seasons, however they will have to warmth the sides up higher than they did in opposition to the Ravens. On the flip aspect, the Chiefs’ proper aspect — Trey Smith and Jawaan Taylor — additionally had bother dealing with the Payments’ rush within the earlier assembly.
3) How will Chiefs defend Payments’ different play-makers? Coping with Josh Allen is hard sufficient. The Payments have develop into extra numerous offensively, although, to the place the burden just isn’t falling utterly on his shoulders each recreation.
James Cook has spearheaded a more practical run recreation, and the Payments have proven they’ve belief giving the ball to Ty Johnson and rookie Ray Davis in key spots. All of them determine to be massive components of the speeding plan, in addition to outlet choices within the passing recreation.
The Chiefs have been a robust run-defending staff on the entire this season. However tackling was a problem within the staff’s first assembly, and the Chiefs have not been fairly as sharp in opposition to the run down the stretch, permitting 509 speeding yards the previous three outings (together with playoffs).
Do not rule out the Payments taking a extra run-heavy method on this recreation, and that features designed runs for Allen — as they did final week going through the Ravens. For no matter purpose, Allen has traditionally been more practical utilizing his legs in opposition to the Chiefs within the playoffs (7.6 yards per carry) in comparison with regular-season conferences (4.1).
However one of many different byproducts of a extra balanced assault this season has been Allen spreading the ball round to varied receivers within the passing recreation. Khalil Shakir has been Allen’s primary man, and Shakir gave the Chiefs some bother in Week 11, however 10 completely different cross catchers have 17 or extra receptions this season. That largely has carried on by way of two playoff video games.
The Chiefs ought to be in a greater place to deal with Shakir, who had eight catches for 70 yards within the first assembly, with Jaylen Watson again after lacking that contest. Trent McDuffie by no means as soon as confronted off in opposition to Shakir, whom security Chamarri Conner struggled to stay with, doubtless as a result of the Chiefs have been shorthanded within the secondary.
Then once more, neither tight finish Dalton Kincaid nor vast receiver Keon Coleman suited up in that first recreation, both. How Spagnuolo points his protection assignments might be attention-grabbing, however it might be shocking if McDufflie — who’s fairly snug defending the slot — did not see plenty of Shakir.
Amari Cooper and Coleman have been comparatively quiet to this point within the playoffs, with Curtis Samuel stepping up extra after a disappointing common season. Samuel additionally was an enormous issue within the first assembly, with 5 catches for 58 yards and a TD that put Buffalo up two scores within the fourth quarter.
4) Who else will step up for Kansas Metropolis moreover Travis Kelce? Kelce continues to make his case as one of the best cross catcher in NFL playoff historical past, at present sitting first all-time in receptions and behind solely Jerry Rice in yards and touchdowns. Final week in opposition to the Texans, he led the way in which with seven catches for 117 yards, passing Rice for most 100-yard receiving playoff games with 9. He additionally caught a TD and has had a historical past of killing the Payments within the playoffs (26-289-5 receiving in three video games).
In Week 11, the Payments did every little thing they might to take Kelce out of the sport, and it was profitable, holding him to 2 brief catches for 8 yards. Assuming they take this similar method, who will step up for the Chiefs within the passing recreation?
Final week versus Houston, the Chiefs had points producing offense with anybody not named Kelce. The bottom recreation was held in examine. Xavier Worthy had 5 catches however netted solely 37 yards on six touches whole. Mahomes was 4 of 10 passing for 15 yards when focusing on anybody moreover Kelce and Worthy.
Isiah Pacheco wasn’t wholesome the final time these groups met, however even again on the sector, he is been held down recently, averaging fewer than 4.0 yards speeding in every of his previous 5 outings, with a future of 10 yards. He is additionally contributed little as a receiver. May he be an even bigger a part of the sport plan?
The Chiefs additionally wish to see DeAndre Hopkins produce extra. He is been comparatively quiet recently and did not do a lot in his two outings in opposition to the Payments this season — one with the Titans and one after coming to the Chiefs via trade. Video games akin to this are why the Chiefs introduced him onboard.
The Payments secondary is slightly banged up heading into Sunday, with S Taylor Rapp (again/hip) thought of each day after lacking each practices to this point this week. CB Christian Benford additionally stays within the concussion protocol. Each left Sunday’s win over the Ravens, actually scaling down the secondary by recreation’s finish.
Buffalo is a zone-heavy protection, and each of Mahomes’ picks in Week 11 got here versus zone, so you’ll be able to anticipate extra of the identical. But when the Payments are shorthanded within the secondary once more, they will must hope the cross rush can offset the drop-off in protection.
NFL.com’s Coral Smith breaks down 4 issues to look at for when the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles face off within the NFC Championship Sport.
NFL.com’s Nick Shook breaks down three issues to look at for when the Los Angeles Rams tackle the Philadelphia Eagles within the Divisional Spherical.
NFL.com’s Eric Edholm breaks down three issues to look at for when the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Payments shut out the Divisional Spherical.
NFL.com’s Christian Gonzales breaks down three issues to look at for when the Houston Texans and Kansas Metropolis Chiefs kick off the Divisional Spherical from GEHA Discipline at Arrowhead Stadium.
NFL.com’s Kevin Patra breaks down three issues to look at for when the Washington Commanders tackle the Detroit Lions within the Divisional Spherical.
NFL.com’s Eric Edholm breaks down three issues to look at for when the second-seeded Buffalo Payments host the No. 7 Denver Broncos in Sunday’s wild-card recreation.
NFL.com’s Coral Smith breaks down three issues to look at for when the Inexperienced Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles face off Sunday on Wild Card Weekend.
NFL.com’s Coral Smith breaks down three issues to look at for when the Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers face off Sunday on Wild Card Weekend.
NFL.com’s Bobby Kownack breaks down three issues to look at for when the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams face off Monday on Wild Card Weekend.
NFL.com’s Kevin Patra breaks down three issues to look at for when the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans kick off Wild Card Weekend on Saturday.
NFL.com’s Nick Shook breaks down three issues to look at for when the division-rival Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens conflict in Saturday’s wild-card recreation.
