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by Chris Murray
The Nevada males's basketball crew performs Dayton within the first spherical of the NCAA Match on Thursday. Right here is our overview of the 2 groups main into the sport.
Data: No. 7 seed Dayton (24-7, 14-4 Atlantic-10) vs. No. 10 seed Nevada (26-7, 13-5 Mountain West)
When: Thursday, 1:30 p.m. Pacific time
The place: Delta Middle (20,000 capability) in Salt Lake Metropolis
TV: TBS (Brad Nessler, Brendan Haywood, Dana Jacobson)
NET rating: Nevada 34; Dayton 23
KenPom rating: Nevada 36 (fortieth offense, thirty sixth protection); Dayton 32 (18th offense, 87th protection)
Energy of schedule: Nevada 89th (231st non-league); Dayton 88th (thirty eighth non-league)
Coaches: Nevada's Steve Alford (11-12 in NCAA Match video games); Dayton's Anthony Grant (1-3 in NCAA Match video games)
All-time NCAA Match report: Nevada (6-10); Dayton (19-20)
Three strengths for the Flyers
1. DaRon Holmes II: The 6-foot-10, 220-pounder Holmes was voted a second-team AP All-American and is arguably the nation's finest energy ahead. He averages 20.4 factors, 8.4 rebounds, 2.6 assists and a pair of.1 blocks per recreation, taking pictures 54.5/38.5/70.7. The previous top-40 nationwide recruit is now a junior who ranks 53rd on ESPN's NBA draft large board. He will get to the free throw line at will and has scored 20-plus factors in 18 of 31 video games with 9 video games tallying not less than 25 factors.
2. 3-point taking pictures: Dayton ranks third within the nation in 3-point taking pictures at 40.2 %. Fourth-year participant Koby Brea, who comes off the bench, is an elite shooter. He's made 49.2 % of his 185 3-point makes an attempt, hitting 91 threes on the yr. His 49.2 % taking pictures ranks first within the nation (by 4.8 %!). He's not a one-man present. Dayton has six gamers who’ve hit not less than 24 threes with 4 gamers making not less than 45 threes whereas hitting at a 37.5 % clip or higher.
3. Avoiding fouls: The Flyers don't have an elite protection, however they do one factor elite on protection. That's avoiding fouls. Dayton's opponents shoot 12.9 free throws per recreation, the second fewest within the nation. That's partially a results of the Flyers taking part in at a slower tempo. However Dayton nonetheless ranks twelfth within the nation when taking a look at fewest fouls per possession (20.2 %). That has allowed the Flyers to make extra free throws (14.5 per recreation) than their opponent makes an attempt (12.9 per recreation).
Two weaknesses for the Flyers
1. Protection: Regardless of not fouling, Dayton's protection isn't nice. The Flyers rank 87th in KenPom protection, the fourth-worst rank of any NCAA Match at-large crew. There are two predominant causes for this. Dayton doesn’t power turnovers, getting a takeaway on 15.3 % of its defensive possessions (276th within the nation). And the Flyers have points on the defensive glass (171st within the nation). This isn’t a nasty protection, but it surely's not a high-pressure unit that creates miscues.
2. Depth: Dayton principally performs a seven-man rotation with a superb beginning 5 and Brea as the important thing gunner off the bench. Whereas foul bother has not been a difficulty for this crew, if the Flyers do get fast fouls and need to go to their reserves, that may spell bother. Brea averages 10.9 factors per recreation off the bench however the remainder of the Flyers reserves chip in round 5 factors per recreation. Dayton has six gamers who common eight-plus factors, but it surely's a steep dropoff from there.
Prime-five wins (per KenPom rank)
1. St. John's (KenPom 25), 88-81
2. Cincinnati (KenPom, 37), 82-68
3. SMU (KenPom 71), 65-63
4. VCU (KenPom 80), 91-86 OT
5. Duquesne (KenPom 86), 72-62 and 75-59
Three strengths for the Wolf Pack
1. Backcourt: Nevada has one of many West's high backcourts with fifth-year seniors Jarod Lucas (17.8 ppg) and Kenan Blackshear (15.1 ppg, 4.9 apg, 4.9 rpg). The duo averages 32.9 factors per recreation. Lucas is an elite shooter who hits 39.7 % of his threes but additionally will get to the free throw line 5.4 instances per recreation. Blackshear is among the nation's greatest and strongest level guards who’s an elite defender whereas taking pictures 49.9 % from the sector, together with 5.9 free throw makes an attempt a recreation.
2. Getting fouled: The Wolf Pack attracts a foul on 31.1 % of its offensive possessions, rating second nationally. That led to 24.8 free throw makes an attempt per recreation, ninth nationally. Nevada's accuracy from the road can come and go together with the Pack having some nice performances and a few performances which have left so much to be desired. Total, Nevada makes 72.1 % of its free throws (a hundred and seventy fifth nationally). The Wolf Pack will get 23.8 % of its factors from the road (tenth within the NCAA).
3. Size on protection: Nevada has three elite perimeter defenders in Blackshear, Tré Coleman (a two-time All-MW defensive participant) and Daniel Foster, which permits it to modify on screens and assign Coleman the opposing crew's high perimeter scorer. Nevada ranks thirty sixth within the nation in protection, per KenPom, and held opponents to 31.8 % taking pictures from the 3-point line, which ought to assist its trigger because it faces arguably the nation's finest 3-point taking pictures crew.
Two weaknesses for the Wolf Pack
1. Rebounding: This has not been a persistent drawback, however rebounding has been a difficulty in Nevada's losses. The Wolf Pack ranks 209th within the nation in offensive rebounding, 91st in defensive rebounding and 118th total in whole rebound charge. These usually are not nice numbers for an NCAA Match crew. Physicality can be key on this recreation as a result of Dayton could be overwhelmed on the within as Holmes is the one put up participant on the Flyers' roster who performs not less than 10 minutes per recreation.
2. Put up scoring: Nevada will get 28.5 factors per recreation within the put up, which ranks within the twenty fourth percentile nationally. Now, that does underrate the Wolf Pack a little bit as a result of Nevada will get to the foul line so much, and people are generated partially by having success within the put up. However exterior of Nick Davidson (12.1 ppg, 54.9 FG%), there's not a variety of put up scoring for this crew. Okay.J. Hymes (5.8 ppg, 60.8 FG%) is succesful however should not get in foul bother whereas defending Holmes to remain on the courtroom.
Prime-five wins (per KenPom rank)
1. San Diego State (KenPom 21), 70-66 OT
2. TCU (KenPom, 33), 88-75
3. Colorado State (KenPom 38), 77-64 and 77-74
4. Boise State (KenPom 39), 76-66
5. Utah State (KenPom 48), 77-63
1. Nevada's free throw makes an attempt: That is an apparent stat as Nevada depends on the free throw line to attain whereas Dayton not often fouls. The Wolf Pack averages 24.8 free throws per recreation; the Flyers allowed 12.9 free throws per recreation. That's a 12 free throw hole. If Nevada will get 20 free throw makes an attempt on this recreation, it's a win for the Wolf Pack. Something within the low teenagers would imply Nevada would require a giant recreation from the 3-point line to make up for that deficit.
2. Dayton's made 3-pointers: The Flyers' greatest power is its 3-point taking pictures, so Nevada should preserve them from getting open seems. This can be a onerous crew to defend as a result of it surrounds an elite put up participant (Holmes) with succesful shooters. In the event you double crew Holmes, you're most likely giving up an open three, which isn’t preferrred. Dayton has made 41.7 % of its threes in wins and 34.8 % of its threes in losses. Protecting Dayton within the single-digits in made threes can be a win for Nevada.
3. Nick Davidson's factors: Dayton has a vulnerability defending the put up, which additionally contains yielding offensive rebounds. So, Davidson, the Wolf Pack's third-team All-MW large man, should play effectively for Nevada to win this recreation. After a robust run of kind in February, Davidson has averaged simply 9.4 factors and seven.4 rebounds over the past 5 video games, taking pictures 44.7 % from the sector and 23.1 % from the 3-point line. He should return to that February kind for the Wolf Pack.
4. Kenan Blackshear's turnovers: Blackshear could be a difference-maker however may also get sped up at instances and wrestle to run Nevada's offense. He'll be a key participant on this recreation, and it's a great matchup for him. Dayton doesn't have an elite perimeter defender and doesn't create turnovers, so Blackshear ought to be capable of discover a rhythm not like final yr's NCAA Match recreation when he acquired into foul bother and had extra turnovers (5) than factors (4) in a 25-point loss to Arizona State.
5. Fouls drawn by DaRon Holmes II: Scouts can be in attendance to look at Holmes, who’s a possible NBA draft decide this spring. He's going to get his factors, however Nevada can't enable him to fully dominate this recreation and put the Wolf Pack's frontcourt on the bench by drawing fouls. He's a extra versatile participant than San Diego State's Jaedon LeDee, however he'll pose comparable issues, so Nevada has expertise in opposition to a participant like this. If Holmes attracts eight-plus fouls, Nevada may very well be in bother.
Columnist Chris Murray supplies perception on Northern Nevada sports activities. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or observe him on Twitter @ByChrisMurray.
