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Can FSU pull off a serious upset?
After taking down Virginia Tech in its ACC Tournament opener, Florida State will get its third shot on the North Carolina Tar Heels this season, looking for its first win over the regular-season convention champions.
The Seminoles (17-15) will face off towards UNC (25-7) within the quarterfinals of the match, this yr being performed inside Capital One Space in Washington D.C.
How did Florida State get right here?
From Jordan Silversmith:
The story begins and ends with Jamir Watkins. He began slowly however contributed 14 within the first half earlier than scoring 20 within the second. He overpowered the smaller Virginia Tech guards by capturing an environment friendly 7-11 from contained in the arc and 14-17 from the free-throw line. Watkins reached double digits for what the ESPN broadcast stated his twenty second straight sport. Leonard Hamilton shortened his rotation right now and let Watkins run for 34 out of 40 minutes of sport motion. Not solely did he lead the staff in scoring, he impacted the sport in different methods. Watkins corraled 11 rebounds and 4 steals as he put forth an all-around effort.
Watkins wanted a sidekick, and Jalen Warley answered the decision. He had struggled to finish the yr, however by simplifying his sport, he returned to what made him a risk in the midst of the season. The purpose guard didn’t try a 3 however went 8-10 from the ground for 18 factors and used his physicality and ball dealing with to get straightforward buckets contained in the paint. Warley made some defensive errors however did a valiant job containing the explosive Virginia Tech guards.
At the moment, it felt like a throwback Ham sport. The Seminoles hounded Virginia Tech for turnovers, forcing the Hokies to cough up the ball 13 instances en path to 25 factors off them. Furthermore, FSU did a superb job on the boards, which couldn’t be stated for a lot of the season. The Seminoles snatched 9 offensive rebounds with 13 second-chance factors, in comparison with simply 5 from the Hokies. These 13 factors contributed to 48 factors within the paint, together with 25 made free throws. Leonard Hamilton used his staff’s size, physicality, and athleticism to overpower Virginia Tech and lead the Seminoles to their second straight victory.
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As for the Tar Heels, the sport serves because the staff’s first foray into this yr’s ACC Event —the final time that UNC took the court docket, it was for an 84-79 win over the Duke Blue Devils to clinch the common season convention title.
In two video games this season, Florida State misplaced by single digits in near-upsets of North Carolina — actually, as Matt Minnick wrote, FSU outscored UNC in 5 of the 8 “quarters” of the 2 video games however nonetheless failed to tug off a win in both.
The primary matchup in Chapel Hill again on December 2nd was a very nicely performed sport for the Seminoles.
a) FSU shot 12-28 from three
2) UNC was held to underneath 1 level per possession, largely resulting from turning it over nearly 18% of the time and capturing simply 5-22 from 3.
D) The Heels, who’re the 14th greatest offensive rebounding staff within the nation, “solely” grabbed 34% of their misses
It’s fairly clear why FSU hung in there. Shoot higher from three than your opponent, power them into much more turnovers than they common, and maintain them considerably in verify on the offensive glass, you’ll win a superb quantity of video games with that recipe.
So why did FSU come up brief? Free throws. My colleague Michael Rogner has been harping on this for years, and it’s been significantly dangerous this season. UNC took a crap-ton extra FTs than FSU. Take a look at the Heels’ FT fee of 54.4 vs FSU’s 11.9. That distinction proper there turned a potential loss for UNC into an 8 level win.
He additionally touched on what it’ll take for FSU to tug off a win this afternoon:
Basketball is a excessive variance sport so there’s at all times a lot of potential paths the winner may take. However right here’s one which for those who advised me the stats as a substitute of the rating, I’d really feel first rate about our probabilities:
— Make no less than as many threes as UNC. Darin Inexperienced, Jr. was on a heater coming into the ACC Tourney, hopefully he can discover his kind on this one.
— Try no less than 20 free throws. UNC tried 31 FTs within the matchup in Chapel Hill, whereas FSU tried 19 in each matchups mixed. FSU must double their two sport whole, and if it will get Harrison Ingram or RJ Davis in foul bother within the course of, even higher. Jamir Watkins and Jaley Warley should be in assault mode from the tip.
— Seize no less than 70% of the out there defensive rebounds. UNC goes to gobble up their justifiable share of misses, that’s simply who they’re. However the ‘Noles can’t allow them to go wild on the offensive glass. Minimizing an opponents’ offensive rebounds additionally helps you get out in transition towards a protection that isn’t set. This requires all 5 guys on the court docket crashing the glass (taking a look at you guards who’ve favored leaking out this season).
— Power turnovers on 17% or extra of their possessions. UNC, thirty second within the nation at limiting turnovers, has misplaced 6 video games this season. That they had a turnover fee of 17% or extra in half these losses. Additionally they have a 3 level win over Miami with a 22% fee, plus the 2 shut wins over FSU wherein each video games have been over 17%.
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The quarterfinals of the ACC Event between Florida State and North Carolina will get underway at 12 p.m. with the sport set to be broadcast on ESPN. Based on DraftKings, Florida State is an 11-point underdog to North Carolina, with the over/underneath set at 154.5.
Date
Thursday, March 13
Time
12 p.m.
Watch, Stream
ESPN
Hear
Seminoles Radio Network, SiriusXM RADIO FSU Broadcast: CH. 119 or 193
FLORIDA STATE PLAYS NORTH CAROLINA IN ACC TOURNAMENT QUARTERFINALS
Florida State, which defeated Virginia Tech 86-76 within the second spherical of the ACC Event, faces No. 1 seed North Carolina within the quarterfinals of the ACC Event on Thursday, March 14, 2014 at 12 Midday on the Capital One Enviornment. The Seminoles will meet the Tar Heels for the ninth time in ACC Event play with North Carolina holding a 5-3 benefit together with three wins within the ACC Event sequence within the final 4 video games. Florida State enters Thursday’s sport inside Capital One Enviornment having received two of the final three ACC Event video games(in 2012 and 2021) towards the Tar Heels. The Seminoles’ victory over North Carolina within the 2012 ACC Event (85-82) got here within the championship sport of the match and awarded the Seminoles the primary ACC Event championship at school historical past. The Seminoles’ victory over North Carolina in 2021 superior Florida State to the match championship sport for the fourth time at school historical past (2009, 2012, 2019, 2021). The Seminoles have been additionally the No. 1 general seed within the match in 2020 when the championship was cancelled.
JAMIR WATKINS BY THE NUMBERS AGAINST VIRGINIA TECH
Jamir Watkins scored a career-high and Seminoles’ file in an ACC Event sport 34 factors to steer Florida State to an 86-76 victory over Virginia Tech within the second spherical of the ACC Event. Watkins’ 34 factors is probably the most in an ACC Event sport at school historical past. He’s the second participant at school historical past to attain 30 factors or extra in an ACC video games. Xavier Rathan-Mayes scored 30 factors on March 11, 2015, in a 76-73 win over Clemson within the second spherical of the 2015 ACC Event. Watkins’ 34 factors is probably the most by a Florida State participant since Xavier Rathan-Mayes scored 35 towards Miami on February 25, 2015.
MORE ON JAMIR WATKINS’ PERFORMANCE AGAINST VIRGINIA TECH
Jamir Watkins totaled the primary 30-10 double-double in Florida State’s ACC match historical past with a 34-point and 11 rebound efficiency within the Seminoles’ 86-76 win over Virginia Tech. His double-double towards the Hokies was the eleventh at school historical past in an ACC Event sport.
FLORIDA STATE FROM THE FREE THROW LINE AGAINST VIRGINIA TECH
Led by 11 free throws made by Jamir Watkins – the fourth time this season he has made 11 or extra free throws in a sport this season – the Seminoles made 25 of 30 free throws in its 86-76 victory over Virginia Tech in Wednesday, The Seminoles’ .833 capturing proportion from the free throw line marked the sixth consecutive video games and fourth time this season (in victories over Central Michigan (.800; November 13), towards Wake Forest (.800, January 9), at Notre Dame (.867, January 13), and towards Virginia Tech within the ACC Event the Seminoles photographs 80 % or higher from the free throw line.
SEMINOLES WIN THE REBOUND BATTLE AGAINST VIRGINIA TECH
Led by a career-high tying 11 rebounds by Jamir Watkins – the second consecutive and fifth sport this season he has earned 11 rebounds – the Seminoles outrebounded Virginia Tech on Wednesday within the second spherical of the ACC Event. It marked the primary time in three video games this season that Florida State had outrebounded Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech held a +15 rebound margin (+3 in Florida State’s victory on January 3 and +12 in Virginia Tech’s victory on February 13) in two video games this season.
SEMINOLES FROM THE FIELD IN VICTORY OVER VIRGINIA TECH
Florida State’s beginning 5 shot .550 % from the sphere (22 of 40) in its victory over Virginia Tech in its 86-76 in over the Hokies. It marked the ninth time this season the Seminoles have shot 50 % or higher from the sphere. In three video games towards Virginia Tech this season, the Seminoles shot a cumulative whole of .506 from the sphere (81 of 160).
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