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The Buffalo Payments (12-6) are 2.5-point favorites heading into Sunday’s Divisional spherical playoff recreation towards the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (12-6) at Highmark Stadium. The sport will air on Sunday at 6:30 p.m. on CBS.
For the newest level spreads, examine FanDuel.
Since 2020, that is the third postseason assembly between the Payments and Chiefs. The Chiefs have gained the earlier two conferences in Kansas Metropolis. This would be the first postseason assembly in Buffalo.
Buffalo beat Kansas Metropolis in Week 14 of this season 20-17 in Kansas Metropolis.
This is an inventory of extra postseason notes
ESPN
What to look at for: For the primary time on this rivalry between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, the Chiefs are coming to Orchard Park for the postseason. The quarterbacks have met six instances, with the Payments successful three of the 4 regular-season conferences, and the Chiefs taking each postseason video games (2020 and 2021). The distinction for the Payments within the common and postseason matchups is the defensive success. Within the common season, the Payments have held the Chiefs to twenty.8 factors per recreation and produced 9 takeaways, however within the playoffs, Kansas Metropolis has averaged 40 factors per recreation and had just one turnover. There can be a giant check forward for a Payments protection coping with quite a lot of accidents. — Alaina Getzenberg
Daring prediction: Mahomes and Allen will mix for at the very least six TD passes. These two at all times placed on a present after they play, notably within the postseason. Mahomes and Allen mixed for 5 scoring passes within the AFC Championship Recreation after the 2020 season and 7 within the divisional spherical the following season. The situations can be lower than very best, however that hasn’t stopped them earlier than. — Adam Teicher
Stat to know: One space that may differentiate the Payments from the Chiefs may very well be successful the turnover battle. The Payments pressured 30 turnovers this season, the second most within the NFL (the Ravens and Giants pressured 31 every). The Chiefs pressured 17 turnovers this season, the twenty seventh most within the NFL.
Matchup X issue: The Payments’ cornerback well being. Taron Johnson (concussion), Rasul Douglas (knee) and Christian Benford (knee) are all banged up. Whereas Buffalo seems like the higher workforce on paper, a depleted secondary towards Mahomes looks as if a harmful mixture. — Walder
Recreation-plan key: Within the Week 14 matchup between these groups, Payments operating again James Prepare dinner had 83 receiving yards. Search for the Payments to get Prepare dinner concerned within the passing recreation once more with backfield releases and screens. And search for Chiefs linebacker Nick Bolton to be key in limiting these performs. — Bowen
Officiating word: Shawn Hochuli is without doubt one of the NFL’s extra energetic referees. In the course of the common season, he threw an NFL-high 14 flags for roughing the passer, 5 greater than the next-closest referee. Since changing into a referee in 2018, he has led the league with 61 such flags. That would show attention-grabbing, as Allen has grown adept at drawing roughing the passer fouls. He drew six in 2023, probably the most within the league. Mahomes drew just one. — Seifert
Betting nugget: Mahomes is 10-5 ATS in his playoff profession, together with 7-2 ATS when he isn’t at the very least a seven-point favourite. Allen is 3-6 ATS in his playoff profession.
Moody’s decide: Payments 31, Chiefs 27
Walder’s decide: Chiefs 32, Payments 31
FPI prediction: BUF, 56.6% (by a median of two.3 factors)
Pete Prisco | CBS Sports
That is the sport of the week between two groups which have met in recent times, however this recreation is a Payments residence recreation. Which means Patrick Mahomes can be enjoying the primary street playoff recreation in his profession. It positive does not are available a simple place to play. The Payments have rolled into the playoffs, needing to win each recreation down the stretch, however they’ve some main defensive accidents. The Chiefs offense confirmed properly final week towards Miami, in order that may very well be an issue. Josh Allen has to restrict his errors, which he did within the victory over the Steelers. I feel he does right here because the Payments beat the Chiefs to advance to the AFC championship recreation.
Choose: Payments 28, Chiefs 23
Mike Florio, Chris Simms | Pro Football Talk
It is the newest postseason assembly within the closest factor the NFL at the moment has to Brady vs. Manning. The Payments have been a terrific story, however loads of nice tales fall in need of finally glory. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is in playoff mode. He is enjoying like he will not be denied.
Florio: Chiefs, 30-27.
Simms: Payments, 28-24.
Payments vs. Chiefs in January (Josh’s Model) pic.twitter.com/is7d0OZJKN
Frank Schwab | Yahoo Sports
There’s little doubt what the sport of the weekend is. And the argument for the Chiefs successful is fairly straightforward. The Payments are on a brief week and took on some extra accidents Monday. Kansas Metropolis has one of the best protection of the Patrick Mahomes period. And so they have Mahomes. It has been tough for the Chiefs at instances this season, although they appeared fairly good final weekend towards Miami.
I am nonetheless not transferring off the Payments.
Late within the season, I stated the Payments would both miss the playoffs or make the Tremendous Bowl. We’ll see if I comply with by way of and decide Buffalo subsequent week, however I’m not giving up on them but. This was a flawed Chiefs workforce all through the season. They’re nonetheless excellent, they’ve one of the best coach/quarterback mixture within the NFL, and so they’re in a great place. They’re most likely higher geared up for unhealthy climate — we’re in for one other scary forecast in western New York — than the workforce from Buffalo. It would not shock anybody in the event that they gained Sunday night time.
However this looks as if the Payments’ time. The gang can be nice. Josh Allen has been superior this season if he isn’t turning it over. Buffalo has extra choices on offense than the previous few seasons. The Chiefs’ dynasty is not near being completed, however Buffalo is able to take a giant step this postseason.
Choose: Payments -3 over Chiefs
Neil Greenberg | The Washington Post
The Payments’ harm report is alarmingly lengthy. Coach Sean McDermott on Tuesday gave a prolonged listing of gamers who had been day-to-day going into the week, together with security Taylor Rapp (calf), vast receiver Gabe Davis (knee), cornerback Rasul Douglas (knee), linebacker Tyrel Dodson (shoulder), cornerback Christian Benford (knee), linebacker Terrel Bernard (ankle), cornerback Taron Johnson (concussion protocol), linebacker Baylon Spector (again) and punter Sam Martin (hamstring). Rapp, Davis, Douglas and Dodson missed Monday’s win over the Steelers.
At full power, the Payments have the league’s Twelfth-best protection, per Schatz’s defense-adjusted worth over common metric, however these accidents will solely make it tougher to defend towards the Chiefs, who rolled up 409 yards and 26 factors in the bitter cold towards the Dolphins.
Choose: Chiefs cash line at +120 odds or higher
Bill Bender | Sporting News
Mahomes will make his first street begin within the postseason. Buffalo beat Kansas Metropolis 20-17 in Week 14. Who remembers that offensive offsides name on Kadarius Toney? It was a good recreation, and whereas the eye is on Mahomes and Allen this would possibly find yourself being a defensive wrestle. Neither workforce might generate a robust operating recreation in that first matchup – and the Payments dominated time of possession. It is best to maintain Mahomes off the sector as potential. The Payments had been 7-1 S/U and 7-1 ATS as a house favourite this season. Kansas Metropolis is 7-0-1 ATS and 6-2 S/U as a street underdog since Mahomes took over because the starter in 2018. and If Allen avoids field-changing interceptions, then Buffalo ought to be capable of feed off the house crowd within the parts. Allen has performed properly within the final two playoff losses towards the Chiefs. This time, the Payments’ protection ends Kansas Metropolis’s hopes for a repeat by forcing a late turnover.
Choose: Payments 28, Chiefs 24
.@ColinCowherd makes his official divisional spherical picks:
"I feel Buffalo goes to win it." pic.twitter.com/rz2wRXm3ky
Vinnie Iyer | Sporting News
The Chiefs’ protection made a press release within the first recreation at residence however the offense wasn’t clear sufficient in a 20-17 loss in Week 14. Patrick Mahomes faces his first true playoff street problem and can be helped a lot by the facility operating recreation and different aspect of the ball.
Mahomes will not fiddle and keep environment friendly by making the Payments cease each Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce, whereas the hard-pounding Isiah Pacheco will put on down the go rush with good quantity. The Payments want to stay extra with the run to James Prepare dinner, however they’ll as soon as once more get too assured with Josh Allen in a troublesome matchup the place he is sure to be pressured into the important thing giveaways Mahomes will not make.
Choose: Chiefs win 24-20.
Ryan Reynolds | 33rd Team
The Buffalo Payments and Kansas Metropolis Chiefs have squared off six instances since 2020, with each groups successful three video games throughout that span. Buffalo has gained three of the final 4, however Kansas Metropolis has gained each playoff matchups.
These groups are very conversant in one another. Typically, the quarterback with the ball final has gained.
Buffalo’s present six-game successful streak began with a Week 14 victory over the Chiefs in Kansas Metropolis. Payments RB James Prepare dinner had a giant recreation in that matchup, with 58 speeding yards and 83 by way of the air. Buffalo is among the many most pass-centric groups within the league, whereas Kansas Metropolis allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards this season.
Patrick Mahomes’ offense has been uncharacteristically uneven, however the unit took care of enterprise towards Miami final week. Regardless of the offenses’s regular-season struggles, Mahomes is the scariest opponent any protection can face in an elimination recreation.
Buffalo’s secondary and linebacker group are riddled with accidents. If anybody can exploit that sort of state of affairs, it is Mahomes.
Rating Prediction: Payments 23, Chiefs 20
Around the NFL | NFL.com
Why Gennaro is taking the Chiefs: Fewer video games means fewer narratives, inherently promising one subplot can be repeated so incessantly this week that your eyes would possibly simply roll out of their sockets. So watch out on the market, however … DID YOU HEAR THAT THIS IS PATRICK MAHOMES’ FIRST TRUE ROAD PLAYOFF GAME?!?! It is true. I checked. (By stepping outdoors and cupping a hand to my downwind ear.) Sure, the Payments have home-field benefit. However the Chiefs have the higher protection, the more healthy roster and two further days of relaxation. To not point out, Kansas Metropolis’s much-maligned offense simply loved its most prolific, balanced effort since October. Oh, and I am considering that maniacal competitor within the No. 15 jersey is barely motivated by the underdog label and nonetheless a bit aggrieved over the ending to final month’s residence loss to Buffalo.
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