Sport Predictions | Payments vs. Steelers | NFL playoffs – BuffaloBills.com

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The Buffalo Payments (11-6) are 9.5-point favorites heading into Sunday’s Tremendous Wild Card playoff sport in opposition to the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) at Highmark Stadium. The sport will air on Monday at 4:30 p.m. on CBS.
For the newest level spreads, verify FanDuel.
The Payments are the No. 2 seed within the AFC whereas the Steelers are the No. 7 seed. This may mark the primary time the 2 franchises have met in a postseason sport in Buffalo.
This is an inventory of further postseason notes …
This is an inventory of notes from the 2023 common season …
ESPN
What to look at for: The roads that the Payments and Steelers took to this sport include an eerie variety of similarities, from shedding key gamers to harm for stretches to assembling season-ending profitable streaks regardless of low playoff odds. Each groups additionally fired their offensive coordinators at midseason, changing into the primary playoff groups to have an in-season coordinator change for the reason that 2012 Ravens. The Steelers are on the lookout for the staff’s first playoff win since 2016, whereas the Payments are 13-2 in dwelling playoff video games since 1970. Limiting quarterback Josh Allen within the postseason will pose a problem for Pittsburgh, as Allen is the one participant in NFL playoff historical past to common 250 passing yards and 50 speeding yards per sport (min. 5 video games) and has the very best mixed common yardage (343.9). — Alaina Getzenberg
Daring prediction: Steelers operating again Najee Harris can have his third consecutive sport of no less than 100 speeding yards. The Payments’ speeding protection is arguably the hardest the Steelers have confronted in no less than a month, permitting opponents a median of 103 speeding yards per sport of their previous three contests. However Harris is on a roll with back-to-back video games of 100-plus speeding yards. With the temperature anticipated to be under freezing, wind gusts of fifty miles per hour and attainable mild snow, the Steelers will lean closely on their floor sport. Sharing the backfield with Jaylen Warren, Harris had simply 255 touches within the common season, his fewest in his three-year NFL profession, making him as contemporary as attainable for the playoffs. — Brooke Pryor
Stat to know: The Steelers had 9 wins in one-score video games throughout the common season, which led the NFL and are essentially the most in a single season in franchise historical past.
Matchup X issue: Payments left sort out Dion Dawkins. With edge rusher T.J. Watt out, Alex Highsmith is much more essential to the Steelers’ cross rush. If Dawkins — who has had a very nice season and ranked fourth in cross block win price amongst tackles — can shut down Highsmith, that ought to arrange Allen for a reasonably clean day. — Walder
Sport-plan key: Pittsburgh has to run the ball properly between the tackles. Harris and Warren completed the common season scorching, and Buffalo allowed 4.6 yards per keep it up inside runs this season, thirtieth within the NFL. — Bowen
Officiating be aware: This sport will profit from one of many NFL’s most trusted referees. Carl Cheffers has been the Tremendous Bowl referee in two of the previous three years and 3 times previously seven. His regular-season crew threw the third-fewest flags within the league (12.1 per sport). — Seifert
Betting nugget: The Steelers have been 10-7 ATS within the common season with unders going 11-6. The Payments have been 7-10 ATS within the common season with unders going 11-6.
Moody’s choose: Payments 34, Steelers 20
Walder’s choose: Payments 30, Steelers 13
FPI prediction: BUF, 76.6% (by a median of 10.4 factors)
Pete Prisco | CBS Sports
The Payments are rolling into the playoffs as winners of 5 straight. They’ve the look of a harmful playoff staff. The Steelers gained two straight to get into the postseason, however they are going to be with out T.J. Watt right here in opposition to Josh Allen. That is a nasty factor for a protection that has struggled in an enormous means even when he is on the sector. Search for the Payments to roll on this one. 
Choose: Payments 27, Steelers 13
Mike Florio, Chris Simms | Pro Football Talk
Josh Allen vs. Mason Rudolph. With no T.J. Watt. There’s not rather more to say.
Florio: Payments, 24-10.
Simms: Payments, 27-13.
Neil Greenberg | The Washington Post
Pittsburgh shall be with out defensive standout T.J. Watt, who led the league with 19 sacks, after he suffered a knee harm within the third quarter of Saturday’s win over the Baltimore Ravens. J.J. Watt revealed on social media that his brother suffered a Grade 2 medial collateral ligament sprain and can want a “couple weeks of relaxation/restoration.”
Add within the playoff expertise for Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen (99.6 passer score over eight postseason video games) and the dearth of expertise for Pittsburgh’s Mason Rudolph (zero playoff video games), and it is a simple play to again the Payments at dwelling with a variety below the important thing variety of 10, though it has since moved up.
Choose: Payments -9½ (The quantity has since moved up.)
Sheil Kapadia | The Ringer
How I see it: I have been telling anybody who would hear this season to not quit on the Payments. Having stated that, they are not precisely rolling into the playoffs on fireplace. This can be a staff that almost misplaced to Easton Stick a number of weeks in the past. And even in opposition to the Dolphins in Week 18, they did 12 silly issues earlier than lastly securing a victory. Both the Payments will win the Tremendous Bowl, or they will endure a loss that’s so absurd we’ll all be telling our grandkids about it.
Can the Payments blow the Steelers out? Positive. On paper, that is what ought to occur. However solely one in all their remaining 5 wins got here by greater than a landing. This staff lets opponents grasp round, and the Steelers focus on hanging round. Happening the street within the playoffs and taking part in a possible snow sport with a third-string quarterback? Mike Tomlin was constructed for this. I am taking the factors.
The choose: Steelers (+10)
Bill Bender | Sporting News
That is the fourth playoff assembly between these groups. Buffalo gained its previous 5 video games, however 4 of these victories have been one-score video games. The Payments have been 1-5 ATS when favored by greater than seven factors. Nonetheless, they are going to be a well-liked choose on this spot given how Josh Allen is 3-1 S/U as a starter in opposition to the Steelers. T.J. Watt (knee) additionally is likely to be out, and Pittsburgh nonetheless has an unsettled quarterback state of affairs with Mason Rudolph and Kenny Pickett. The Steelers have been 5-0 S/U as an underdog of three factors or extra this season. Pittsburgh hangs round right here, too. 
Choose: Payments 24, Steelers 17
Vinnie Iyer | Sporting News
The Payments obtained the Dolphins and a shaky QB state of affairs to open the playoffs final yr. They get an identical profit from Mason Rudolph beginning for the Steelers. He is been taking part in caretaker, displaying just some flashes throwing downfield whereas watching the protection and operating sport ship the previous three weeks. However that protection stays hurting with T.J. Watt once more and Najee Harris will see more durable sledding in Buffalo. On the opposite facet, Josh Allen’s turnover wildness shall be tamed by extra calculated, methodical passing and thriving operating sport led by James Prepare dinner.
Choose: Payments win 27-13 and canopy the unfold.
Bleacher Report
This matchup has the biggest unfold because the Buffalo Payments journey a five-game profitable streak into the postseason to face the Pittsburgh Steelers, who wanted assist to clinch the No. 7 seed.
Although none of our specialists picked the Steelers to win, most of them assume Pittsburgh retains the end result inside single digits.
Hanford acknowledged the Steelers’ improved offensive output with quarterback Mason Rudolph main the huddle over the past three weeks, which factored into his choice to facet with Pittsburgh ATS, however he would not see an outright upset right here.
“The Steelers are arguably the weakest staff within the playoffs and shall be with out their finest participant in T.J. Watt (MCL sprain) this week in Buffalo. That is not an excellent recipe, even when Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee) is ready to play. I haven’t got any Lake Erie or walleye references to again up my Payments choose like we have seen from one in all my colleagues in a number of circumstances.”
Predictions
Davenport: Steelers
Gagnon: Payments
Hanford: Steelers
Knox: Steelers
Moton: Steelers
O’Donnell: Steelers
Sobleski: Steelers
Toporek: Steelers
ATS Consensus: Steelers +9.5
SU Consensus: Payments
Rating Prediction: Payments 28, Steelers 21
Ryan Reynolds | 33rd Team
The Buffalo Payments are one of many league’s hottest groups, profitable their previous 5 video games and beating the Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys and Dolphins throughout that stretch. Josh Allen is likely one of the few quarterbacks within the league who can carry an offense. Turnovers could be a drawback for Allen, however he provides Buffalo’s offense an infinite ceiling. RB James Prepare dinner has a strong matchup right here as a result of Pittsburgh allowed the Tenth-most speeding yards to operating backs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have an uphill battle on a number of fronts on this contest. Pittsburgh is 3-0 with Mason Rudolph as its starter, however the Steelers solely scored 17 factors in a must-win sport in opposition to the Ravens’ backups final week.
Anticipate the Steelers to proceed to lean on their operating again duo — Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren — for so long as they’ll. If Rudolph struggles early, it would not be a shock if Kenny Pickett is introduced on in reduction responsibility.
The most important situation for Pittsburgh is that it will likely be with out T.J. Watt, arguably the very best defensive participant within the league. Final season, the Steelers have been a a lot totally different staff whereas Watt was sidelined. His absence provides Pittsburgh a fair narrower path to victory in Buffalo.
Climate is an X-factor for this contest, as vital wind may significantly influence each offenses. Proper now, 25 mph sustained winds are within the forecast, which is the realm the place wind could be a main issue.
In 2021, we noticed a extreme wind sport in Buffalo in opposition to the New England Patriots, the place neither facet had a lot success within the air. The Patriots threw three passes in that matchup. If this sport has extreme wind, it may benefit Pittsburgh, given its run sport and the way it will scale back what Allen can do by the air.
Rating Prediction: Payments 17, Steelers 10
Around the NFL | NFL.com
Why Brooke is taking the Payments: Mike Tomlin could have simply banked his seventeenth consecutive non-losing season, however the final time his Steelers gained a playoff sport, the Killer Bs — Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown — have been on his facet. This time round, Pittsburgh should depend on Mason Rudolph, whose presence admittedly has sparked a downfield passing sport, and a gentle backfield duo. Actually, although, the protection has been the spotlight of this staff for many of the season, but it surely’ll be with out star cross rusher T.J. Watt on Sunday. That is a enormous blow to Pittsburgh’s probabilities of irritating the curler coaster that’s Josh Allen, whose play is simply too erratic for me to imagine he’ll make it to Championship Sunday. The turnover-prone quarterback should defend the ball. If he does that, the Payments advance. If he would not, it very properly may very well be one other misplaced season in Buffalo. It is that straightforward.
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