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Fantasy Football<\/a> is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn’t be determined by the order you picked your players. You need to check who your players play and make sure you’ve got the right guys in — and the wrong guys out.
At this stage we can be confident in which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough and we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don’t know. This should lead to better decisions being made.
We’ll go through every game and highlight the players who aren’t obvious starts and sits (because you don’t need to be told to start Christian McCaffrey<\/a>). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.
At 41.6 per game, no defense has seen more pass attempts over the past six weeks than the Rams. Literally all but one team (Washington) threw the ball at least 40 times. It’s happening for multiple reasons, the largest of which, predictably, are a very good Rams run defense and a not-as-good Rams pass defense. Derek Carr dealt with an aggressive pass rush last week almost perfectly but didn’t attack downfield very much, often settling for shorter throws. I suspect he’ll do a lot of that this week as the Saints are forced to ditch the run into the second half. It’s also worth mentioning that in its past five games L.A. has allowed a pretty high catch rate to running backs (87.1%) but have remained excellent at limiting plays after the catch (4.6 yards per catch, 5.2 Yards After Catch per reception, or YAC\/reception, in those past five).\u00a0
Indy’s running backs totaled 31 PPR points against the Steelers, New England’s had 27, and Arizona’s had 25. These are stark contrasts to the 8.0 PPR points Joe Mixon had against Pittsburgh in Week 12. The reality is that the Steelers had a number of injuries impact their front seven, and more injuries will further deplete this once-strong unit. Not only is a possible shake-up coming among the inside linebackers, but one is definitely happening at both safety spots with Minkah Fitzpatrick out and Damontae Kazee suspended. The Bengals aren’t dopes — they’re going to go after the middle of this defense much like other teams have. In the three games since the Steelers matchup Mixon has averaged 20.7 touches and 22.1 PPR points per game while Chase Brown has averaged 10 touches and 11.2 PPR points per.\u00a0
James Cook has averaged 21 touches per game, 141.0 total yards per game and 24.1 PPR points per game in four matchups since Joe Brady has taken over. Given the way Zamir White and Ameer Abdullah churned through the Chargers last week, it’s a pretty safe bet the Bills will ride their run game some more. That should unsurprisingly cement the Chargers into a pass-heavy game script, but in the past three weeks Austin Ekeler has played just 63% of the team’s snaps when they’ve thrown the ball. Ekeler has one game in his past five (two weeks ago versus Denver) where he’s had even more than 10 PPR points. There is a concern he won’t dominate touches, a concern that hurts how the Chargers offense operates.\u00a0
Arthur Smith admitted after last week’s loss that the team got too conservative offensively. The larger issues were that they ran the ball without much success because three starting linemen were out and the defense couldn’t get off the field in the final seven-plus minutes of the game. In two games since Grover Stewart’s return to the D-line, the Colts have allowed just 3.5 yards per carry to running backs but have gotten gashed through the air. We’ve seen the Falcons give Bijan Robinson targets in games against tough run defenses (Detroit and Washington much earlier this year, Tampa Bay and New Orleans more recently), so the hope is that he gets those chances on Sunday. Taylor Heinicke threw 22.4% of his targets to running backs over his 74 attempts this season — a good number, but just a smidge lower than Desmond Ridder’s 23.5%.\u00a0
Green Bay wasn’t forced to abandon the run in the second half last week against Tampa Bay, but they did anyway, throwing on 81.3% of those third- and fourth-quarter snaps. That wasn’t the first time Matt LaFleur leaned into Jordan Love’s arm in the second half, but it was the first time it was this egregious. LaFleur lamented not using Aaron Jones more in the second half but prioritizing him this week could be a challenge. That’s because the Panthers run defense has come alive with 3.7 yards per rush to RBs in its past five games, 3.4 in its past three and 2.1 last week against the Falcons last week! If Carolina had a shred of consistency in its pass game then this could be a problematic spot for the Packers.\u00a0
Joe Flacco has at least 44 pass attempts in each of his three starts, and with the matchup being what it is, odds are the Browns will continue to ride his arm (even after three interceptions last week against Chicago). Despite not playing with C.J. Stroud last week, the Texans stayed pretty balanced until they were in a pass-first situation in the fourth quarter. That mentality makes sense given the limited personnel they have available, but the Browns were so much better against the pass last week with Denzel Ward on the field in obvious passing situations and improved against the run overall in their last two (2.5 yards per carry, two runs of 10-plus yards allowed, one rushing touchdown). It creates a difficult spot for the Texans’ depleted offense.\u00a0
The Lions pass defense has been awful for a while, but the return of safety and part-time nickel corner C.J. Gardner-Johnson would be huge. He’s a thumper with ball-hawking traits who could make the middle of the field treacherous for quarterbacks. Fortunately for Mullens, attacking the sidelines is something he’s capable of doing and might be asked to do more of given the matchups along the perimeter. It feels unlikely that Ty Chandler will carry as much of the offense this week considering the Lions’ run defense is better than the Bengals’ depleted unit he faced last week. That should tilt the Vikings offense toward throwing more.\u00a0
Pretty much every quarterback has taken advantage of the Commanders’ defense since they traded away key pass rushers at midseason. If the Jets start Trevor Siemian, I’m not sure they can keep the trend going. Siemian has been a nightmare, completing 48.7% of his passes for 4.5 yards per attempt with a sickening 28.2% off-target rate. And just so it’s in here: Garrett Wilson has an 11.4% target per route run rate over 44 pass plays with Siemian this season. That’s … not good. My hunch is that the Jets will aim to get their run game going in this equally easy matchup for Breece Hall. If Siemian can put some completions up off of the run game, so be it, but it’s hard to count on it even in a favorable matchup.\u00a0
When Geno Smith has played, Seattle has thrown the ball at least 60% of the time each week except in two home 10-point wins (Week 3 vs. Carolina, Week 7 vs. Arizona). Given the Titans’ run defense issues since losing massive D-tackle Jeffrey Simmons (5.1 yards per rush) along with the Titans offense seemingly downgrading with Ryan Tannehill back under center, I wonder if the Seahawks will try to ease Smith back in and lean again on Kenneth Walker. The matchup is great so long as Simmons is out; the only issue is that Walker had 22 touches on Monday and will be on the road on a short week. It shouldn’t be enough to be worried about Walker, but if he’s still on fire then Smith may not throw that much.\u00a0
The Buccaneers were methodical in their takedown of the Packers last week — Baker Mayfield played out of his mind because his receivers were getting open. Considering that the Jaguars have allowed over 300 passing yards in three of their past four (much of it coming after the catch), I would suspect there’s room for another hyper-efficient game from Mayfield this week. But don’t expect a ton of passes — Mayfield has 33 or fewer drop backs in each of his past three games while Rachaad White has 20-plus rushes in those three, and they’re all Bucs wins. Those trends could continue.
Justin Fields attempted 40 passes last week and completed 19. The Bears probably would prefer to be much more balanced offensively; the home matchup against a consistently struggling Cardinals run defense is exactly what they need. The Cardinals have allowed 4.6 yards per rush on the season but 5.7 yards per rush in their past four games — including a matchup against the Steelers! The matchup is just as amazing for Fields, but it could be more efficient than explosive given the lack of pass attempts he might wind up with.\u00a0
Miami’s offensive line was great on Tua Tagovailoa’s deep throw to Jaylen Waddle last week, but they were mostly a non-factor otherwise because Tagovailoa’s become so good at knowing where to go with the football after less than two seconds after the snap. It feels like Miami has no choice but to stick with the quick pass game with the Cowboys’ raucous pass rush on deck. Know how Buffalo dealt with Micah Parsons & Co.? It ran all over them. Josh Allen attempted just 15 passes with three traveling more than 15 Air Yards. Miami will take more downfield shots than that, but they’re going to test the Dallas run defense for sure, especially if rookie Mazi Smith is going to play at D-tackle.
Let’s start here: Bill Belichick is undefeated against Vance Joseph-coached defenses (5-0 with two wins with Tom Brady). It’s more about Belichick deciphering Joseph’s defenses than it is Belichick telling his offense what to do but considering how decently Bailey Zappe and Ezekiel Elliott have been playing, it could make for a competitive game. Not to be outdone, Russell Wilson is 3-1 lifetime against Belichick’s Patriots (the only loss was in the Super Bowl). Wilson has 13 career touchdowns against Belichick’s defense — six of which on deep throws (15-plus Air Yards). Given the stout nature of the Patriots run defense, expect Russell Wilson to come through for the Broncos if they’re going to win at all.
It’s beginning to feel like Patrick Mahomes has found his mojo, and with Isiah Pacheco checking back into the offense this week, the Chiefs could begin rounding into form offensively. Will the Chiefs defense do the same? They’ve gotten aggressive since their Week 10 bye, playing the second-most man coverage (37% of snaps) and blitzing at the second-highest rate (43.8%). Strangely, Aidan O’Connell has been as good if not better against the blitz than not, and he’s a little less aggressive against zone coverage. The Chiefs defense might be wise to not do what they’ve been doing, instead opting for a conservative plan and waiting for O’Connell to make mistakes.\u00a0
Before you get excited about the Giants defense holding four straight opponents to 24 or fewer points, keep in mind that they played the Commanders, Patriots and Packers (all wins) before getting annihilated by Derek Carr and the Saints. They’re not quite as good as their pass defense metrics make them look. Up next: The Eagles, who are in massive need of a win after two blowout losses and a tough defeat on the road on Monday. Philadelphia dialed up 24 running back runs on Monday, the most for them since Week 5. Considering that the Giants have let up 4.7 yards per carry over their past four, that should be where the Eagles will aim, though at some point the Birds must re-establish Jalen Hurts as a deep-ball threat (zero touchdowns of 15-plus Air Yards in his past three).
This is a huge test for the Ravens, more so than for the 49ers. Last week we were treated to Lamar Jackson comically evading the Jaguars’ blitz-heavy pass rush while he faced zone coverage downfield. He scored 20 Fantasy points. On the road for the second straight week, he’ll see a better pass rush that doesn’t need to blitz much with a better secondary playing zone coverage behind it. Also, it doesn’t help that the Ravens O-line has allowed the third-highest pass-rush pressure rate (46.1%) over its past four games. The matchup against the Niners is a step-up in class for the Ravens defense, too — last week the Jaguars gained 339 total yards with only 75 coming on the ground. You already know the Niners are one of the best running teams and can also whip defenses with their myriad of targets and a cool-under-pressure quarterback.\u00a0
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