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As we approach the fantasy playoffs, it\u2019s a good time to revisit the ideas of Optimality and Game Theory.
In Optimality<\/strong>, you\u2019re always striving for the best possible outcome at the least possible cost. In Game Theory<\/strong>, you recognize that the best possible strategy may depend on what your opponents are doing.
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Whether you\u2019ve clinched your berth, are fighting for your life or are mathematically eliminated (if so, thanks for still reading!), you can still benefit from a few reminders of how game theory can help you outlast your opponents. Week 13 has four fantasy-relevant teams on bye, along with the Giants<\/a> and Vikings<\/a>. Sorry, Minnesota fans \u2014 that MNF showing was abominable.
Now more than ever, it\u2019s important not to overthink your more straightforward decisions and to tinker with care. Here are a few of the usual reminders and suggestions for Week 13. Good luck!
Alvin Kamara<\/a> <\/b>
Kamara is coming off a mediocre showing (depending on your scoring) vs. a good Atlanta run defense in which he totaled 69 rushing yards and 4\/50 receiving, which saved his day. This week he\u2019ll face Detroit<\/a>, another tough team that allows the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. Fortunately for you, a ton of Kamara\u2019s value comes from the passing game, and they are likely to be without several key receiving weapons. Chris Olave<\/a> is in the concussion protocol, Rashid Shaheed<\/a> suffered a thigh injury and of course, Michael Thomas<\/a> is on IR. When Kamara has faced tough rushing matchups earlier in the season, he has seen an uptick in catches and receiving yards. Further, he\u2019s tied for seventh among RBs with seven red zone targets. Despite hauling in all of them, he has only one receiving touchdown so far this season, so I expect his luck to change this weekend. With all the byes this week, it\u2019s unlikely you would have the luxury of benching Kamara in a bad matchup even if you wanted to. Let this be enough to trust him even though Atlanta will surely be putting extra effort into containing him.
Cooper Kupp\/Puka Nacua<\/b>
<\/b>The Rams went wild in Week 12 but somehow Kupp and Nacua were both shut out of the Matt Stafford Touchdown Bonanza. As they host the dysfunctional but still dangerous Browns<\/a> in Week 13, some managers might be leery of slotting these receivers back into lineups. After all, the Browns are fantasy\u2019s worst nightmare, allowing the fewest overall fantasy points, fewest to opposing QBs and second fewest to opposing wide receivers. They allow fewer than 20 points per game. The game total on this one is low \u2013 39.5 points \u2013 but the Rams are home favorites and after ending Tyler Higbee<\/a>\u2019s and Kyren Williams\u2019 TD droughts, it\u2019s only fair to get the WRs back in the end zone. With several star receivers on bye, you\u2019ll have to continue to trust Nacua and Kupp to win over Cleveland\u2019s elite secondary this weekend.
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Jake Browning<\/a><\/b>
<\/b>For those in SuperFlex leagues or who have Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson<\/a> or Justin Fields<\/a> on bye, I think there\u2019s reason to hold out some hope for Browning and Ja\u2019Marr Chase<\/a> this week. First, Browning wasn\u2019t as bad as his final fantasy score (12-ish fantasy points) as his completion percentage was third best and his QB rating was the 11th best for Week 12 (ahead of Trevor Lawrence<\/a>, Brock Purdy<\/a> and Kyler Murray<\/a>). Of course, you don\u2019t get fantasy points for those things, but they provide some insight that he isn\u2019t a total disaster. In a great matchup with Jacksonville this week (third best QB matchup, 10th best overall), Browning could easily fill a QB2 role with 18-20 fantasy points. I don\u2019t do rankings, but I\u2019d start him over any New England<\/a> QB, Bryce Young<\/a> or Tim Boyle<\/a>. It\u2019s even close between Browning and Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray due to their tricky matchups.
Juwan Johnson<\/a><\/b>
<\/b>This one requires some watching but if Olave doesn\u2019t make it out of the concussion protocol and Shaheed gets ruled out, the tight end Johnson would be the next man up for New Orleans. He was targeted seven times in Week 12, catching four for 45 yards. As noted above, while Detroit is tough on running backs, they give up plenty of fantasy points to receivers. Johnson is a big end zone target, though he only has one score this season, and could be relied upon to help move the chains in what should be a competitive game. Rookie A.T. Perry could be a dart throw receiver option in very deep leagues.
(Top photo: Michael Owens\/Getty Images)<\/em><\/p>\n
Renee is an Associate Professor of Neuroscience at the University of Rochester. She has been an avid fantasy sports player and analyst for many years, writing for numerous platforms. Her book, Cognitive Bias in Fantasy Sports: Is your brain sabotaging your team?, helped her recognize the intersection between her two passions–sports and the brain–which shapes her fantasy writing today.<\/span> Follow Renee on Twitter @reneemiller01<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n