Weber State and UC Davis are putting together a string of nailbiting games against each other and now, that streak leads to the Wildcats and Aggies both playing what both sides must feel is a too-early playoff eliminator in a 6 p.m. Saturday kickoff for WSU\u2019s homecoming.
Both teams have a big loss to a ranked Pac-12 team. Weber State (3-3, 1-2 Big Sky) has the better win (at Northern Iowa) but also has a non-DI victory, and UC Davis (3-3, 1-2) has, so far, only lost to good teams.
A head-to-head resume evaluation aside, Weber State feels like the program in serious need of figuring something out, while Davis feels its usual self with competitive home losses to Eastern Washington and Montana.
If there\u2019s a hope the game can turn out like the last three (final scores: 17-12, 17-14, 18-13), it might be that a usually strong Davis defense got beat up a bit by a previously stagnant Montana offense in a 31-23 loss.
But that would require Weber State to find answers like the Griz did last week.
In a change that\u2019s currently subtle until its on-field effects are known, junior Kylan Weisser is now listed as co-starter at quarterback with sophomore Creyton Cooper on WSU\u2019s depth chart.
\u201cYou\u2019re going to do your self-scout, see what you\u2019re running well, see what areas you\u2019re doing well and not try to mess that up,\u201d head coach and offensive coordinator Mickey Mental said in a video interview published by the school. \u201cThen go back to the basics and correct technique. I don\u2019t think we have an effort issue.\u201d
Defensively, Weber State has been up to snuff when it comes to being competitive and putting the team in position to win games. Northern Arizona\u2019s offense netted 13 points in straight-up situations last week, but the Lumberjacks scored on a punt return and then on a 39-yard field following WSU\u2019s offense turning the ball over on downs in the fourth quarter.
\u201cAnother second-half shutout up until that last drive. I mean, they\u2019re doing their job \u2026 giving us chances to win,\u201d Mental said. \u201cWe\u2019ve just got to play complementary football on the offensive side and special teams.\u201d
At this point, though, games against Northern Colorado and Northern Arizona might have been the best places to figure that out. UC Davis is always a tough matchup and, defensively, poses a much greater challenge than the Bears or the Lumberjacks.
\u201cWith Coach (Dan) Hawkins and their staff, they\u2019re well-coached,\u201d Mental said. \u201cThey\u2019ve got a returning quarterback who\u2019s efficient through the air, doesn\u2019t make too many mistakes. They run to the football defensively, they fly around and play hard.\u201d
That returning quarterback is Miles Hastings (No. 7). The junior is completing 64% of his passes for 220 yards per game, throwing eight touchdowns to five interceptions. His 31 of 46 for 359 yards and two touchdowns against Montana weren\u2019t enough, despite outgaining Montana with no turnovers.
Part of that is due to imbalance. UC Davis has been without Lan Larison (No. 3) at running back, statistically the best running back in the Big Sky despite being out for two straight games. He rushed 22 times for 255 yards through three quarters against Eastern Washington on Sept. 23 before leaving that game with a significant knee injury. His status this week is not apparent.
Hastings\u2019 passing attack is balanced, with plenty of throws going to Josh Gale (No. 81), CJ Hutton (No. 1) and Trent Tompkins (N0. 18).
Defensively, sophomore safety Rex Connors (No. 4), native of Pleasant Grove, is the man for Davis. He holds a significant team lead in tackles at 53, adding one interception, one forced fumble and six pass breakups. Linebacker Teddye Buchanan (No. 15) has 36 tackles, with team highs in tackles for loss (4.5) and sacks (two).
Through six games, Weber State is averaging 19 points and 265 yards per game, averaging 4.4 yards per play. Defensively, WSU gives up 24.3 points and 421 yards per game on a 5.4 yards-per-play average.
UC Davis averages 26 points on 436 yards per game, averaging 5.4 yards per play. Defensively, the Aggies allow an average of 26.2 points per game on 393 yards and a 5.3 yards-per-play average.
Jeff Sagarin<\/a> ranks Weber State No. 153 in all of Division I (FBS and FCS). UC Davis is No. 143 overall. Including accounting for home-field advantage, his formula favors Weber State by 1.5 points.
Bill Connelly<\/a> ranks Weber State at No. 27 in FCS and UC Davis at 24. His formula predicts a Weber State win 25-24.
D Ratings<\/a> predicts a UC Davis victory of 28-25 at 56% probability.
Saturday\u2019s forecast calls for a partly cloudy day with a high of 67 degrees. With the sun still up, temperatures should be around 64 degrees at 6 p.m. kickoff but reach mid- to low-50s by the end of the game.
The game broadcast will stream on the ESPN+ subscription service, available at watchespn.com or the ESPN mobile\/streaming app, with Tony Parks on the call.
Steve Klauke and Jerry Graybeal have the radio call on 103.1 FM over the air in Utah and at www.1031thewave.com online.
Weber State leads the all-time series 7-3, though UC Davis took the last meeting in Ogden, a 17-14 win in 2021.
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